Beware the Complacency of Turkeys

Jeff’s Note: We’ve been running some version of the following Thanksgiving Day essay for the past several years. It is uncanny how the same situation seems to develop each year, right around the same time.

It’s a testament to the strong seasonal influence that exerts itself on the stock market. And, that influence is bearish for the next couple of weeks…

We will resume our normal publishing schedule on Monday. Please enjoy the holiday with your family…

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Yesterday, I discovered a turkey carcass on the hillside behind my house…

It seems coyotes celebrate Thanksgiving too.

On the previous morning, I stood on my porch and watched a flock of wild turkeys scratching around my backyard, hunting for whatever it is that turkeys hunt for.

It seemed odd to me that these birds felt so comfortable in my presence.

Didn’t they know Thanksgiving was coming up? Didn’t they know one of their relatives was on my dinner menu? Didn’t they fear the same fate?

Apparently not.

I ventured off the porch and walked out among the feathered creatures. They hardly noticed me.

If I got within a few feet of any of them, the flock would saunter away in the opposite direction.

But rather than cackling, flapping their wings, and scattering… they just casually strolled away – putting a little extra distance between us.

“Pretty darned relaxed,” I thought – for turkeys to be so fearless and complacent this close to Thanksgiving.

They reminded me of investors…

On Monday, the Volatility Index (VIX) – the best tool for measuring fear in the marketplace – closed at 13.41.

That’s near its lowest level in about three years.

And this is happening despite a lackluster earnings season, rising interest rates, the global economy tumbling headfirst into a recession, and a new War in the Middle East.

And just like the frolicking turkeys in my backyard, investors are relaxed – maybe too relaxed.

Of course, that’s what happens when the stock market bounces hard for a few weeks.

That’s what happens when the financial television talking heads turn universally bullish. And when nearly everyone expects Santa to show up.

Investors, like country club turkeys, stop worrying about the potential dangers of their environment.

Lately, we’ve been frequently warning about the danger of complacency. But when stocks are running higher, no one really wants to hear that sort of thing.

It’s kind of like the grandmother who hurries through the sand to tell all the teenagers at the beach party to wear sunscreen…

The teenagers nod politely and thank her for the advice, but then they roll their eyes once she moves on.

Of course, at the end of the day, someone always gets burned.

Periods of low volatility are ALWAYS followed by periods of high volatility (and vice versa).

Right about the time you feel the most comfortable… well… that’s probably about the time where you have the most risk.

The talking heads in the financial media are suggesting there’s nothing to worry about.

They’re relaxed… comfortable… and completely unprepared for any sort of downside action.

But at this point, it may make more sense to cackle, flap our wings wildly, and scatter in all directions.

Otherwise, we might end up as coyote food.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Are you worried danger is coming in the markets?

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