Yesterday I discovered a turkey carcass on the hillside behind my house. I guess coyotes celebrate Thanksgiving, too.

On the previous morning, I stood on my porch and watched a flock of wild turkeys scratching around my backyard, hunting for whatever it is that turkeys hunt for. It seemed odd to me that these birds felt so comfortable in my presence.

Didn’t they know Thanksgiving was coming up? Didn’t they know I was planning to eat a relative of theirs? Didn’t they fear that they could end up on the menu?

Apparently not.

I ventured off the porch and walked out among the feathered creatures. They hardly noticed me.

Oh sure, if I got within a few feet of any of them, the flock would saunter away in the opposite direction. But, rather than cackling and flapping their wings and scattering, they casually just strolled away – putting a little extra distance between us.

“Pretty darned relaxed,” I thought – for turkeys to be so fearless and complacent this close to Thanksgiving.

They reminded me of investors.

On Tuesday, the Volatility Index (VIX) – the best tool for measuring fear in the marketplace – fell into single digits again. It closed the day at 9.73 – near the lowest level ever…

Investors, just like the turkeys that frolicked in my backyard, are relaxed – maybe too relaxed.

Of course, that’s what happens when the stock market makes new highs just about every week. That’s what happens when the biggest declines we get are less than 1%, and the market recovers those losses within just a few days.

Investors, like country club turkeys, stop worrying about the potential dangers of their environment.

We’ve been warning about the dangers of high complacency for the past few months. But, in a raging bull market, no one really wants to hear that sort of thing.

It’s kind of like the grandmother who hurries through the sand to tell all the teenagers at the beach party to wear sunscreen. The teenagers nod politely and thank her for the advice, but then they roll their eyes once she moves on.

Of course, at the end of the day, someone always gets burned.

Periods of low volatility are ALWAYS followed by periods of high volatility (and vice versa). Right about the time you feel the most comfortable… well… that’s probably about the time where you have the most risk.

Since the stock market recovered so quickly from its one-day decline last Wednesday, the talking heads in the financial media are suggesting there’s nothing to worry about. If danger appears, we can just casually stroll away from it.

At this point, though, it may make more sense to cackle, flap our wings wildly, and scatter in all directions.

Otherwise we might end up as coyote food.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

P.S. On March 2, 2000, I made a trade that almost cost me everything. When the market turned against me, I could have panicked, given up, and taken the loss…

But I didn’t. I kept my cool… remembered why I got into the trade in the first place… and how I’d used my “secret key” to find it. And by the end of the day, I had doubled my money instead of losing it all.

To hear the whole story… and learn how you can use this “secret key” yourself… click here.

Reader Mailbag

Today, a reader writes in with their first impressions of their new Delta Report subscription…

I recently got into your latest gold stock option trade. This is the first I got from you, as I subscribed yesterday.

I'm impressed by the clarity and conciseness of your English. Wishing you a happy Thanksgiving Day! Now, among my blessings, I can count getting to know you.

–Douglass G.

Jeff’s response: Thanks Douglass. You made my day. I’m a big fan of flattery. So, I hope you write in often.

Welcome to the Delta Report. I will do my best to help make this a profitable experience for you.

Anyway… Happy Thanksgiving right back to you.

As always, please send in your thoughts… and any other questions or suggestions…right here.