Gold is setting up for another big move.
After rallying 25% in the first four months of 2025, the shiny, yellow metal hasn’t done anything since April. The price of gold peaked near $3400 per ounce right around tax day. It closed yesterday right around $3400 as well.
Gold has been stuck in a tight trading range for the past four months. But, that’s about to change. Energy is building, and there’s a big break coming – in one direction or the other.
Which Way Is Gold Going?
That depends on the dollar.
Let me explain…
Gold and the dollar have an inverse relationship. When one rallies, the other one falls – and vice versa.
Indeed, while gold rallied during the first four months of 2025, the US dollar fell 11%. And, when the dollar moved higher during the fourth quarter last year, gold backed off a bit. So, if we’re trying to figure out what’s next for gold, it may pay to look at the buck.
Here’s the chart of the US Dollar Index (USD)…
Regular readers will recall we turned bullish on the buck in early July. Since then, the dollar has made a series of higher highs and higher lows – which is the definition of an uptrend.
It has rallied above all of its various moving averages (MA). And, those moving averages have morphed into a bullish configuration – with the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) trading above the 20-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA above the 50-day MA.
The last time we saw similar action in the dollar was last October. The dollar index rallied 8% to its peak in January. During that same time, gold struggled. It lost about $200 per ounce.
Of course, there’s no guarantee we’ll see similar action over the next few months. It is possible the dollar could break down from here, drop below its various moving averages, and start another decline phase. That would kick off a new rally phase in gold.
But, if we’re betting on it, then the setup in the dollar looks bullish to me. That means gold is in for a rough time.
Folks who are looking to put money to work in gold will likely be able to do so at lower prices several weeks from now.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Editor, Market Minute
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