Gold has had a tough time these past few weeks…
After peaking in late January near $1,950 an ounce, the shiny yellow metal has been on a one-way path lower.
It closed Wednesday at $1,818 – down nearly 7% in just the past six weeks. It has given up all its 2023 gains, and it’s now trading down for the year.
Gold bugs – those diehard fans of the precious metal – are once again in the all-too-familiar position of watching gold underperform the stock market.
But that may be about to change…
The recent decline has created a potentially bullish reversal pattern on the chart. And that reversal could start as early as today – following the release of last month’s non-farm payrolls report.
Take a look at gold’s chart…
Gold peaked in late January, at a time when all the technical indicators at the bottom of the chart (MACD, RSI, CCI) were in overbought territory. That set the stage for the decline we’ve seen over the past several weeks.
But now, we have the opposite condition…
All the various technical indicators are in oversold territory. And more importantly, they’re all showing positive divergence.
In other words, as the price of gold has been falling recently to a lower low, the technical indicators are making higher lows. This sort of “positive divergence” is often an early warning sign for a potential rally.
All we need now is a catalyst.
And today’s non-farm payrolls report (NFPR) may give us one…
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The NFPR is typically released on the first Friday of each month. This month, however, it was delayed until today.
This report provides information about the health of the job market. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to the number when deciding the fate of interest rates.
And since gold moves sharply in reaction to interest rate policies, gold often makes big moves following the release of the NFPR.
Take another look at the chart and notice last November’s setup (red dotted line)…
Back then, gold was in a similar position to today. The metal was oversold, and there was positive divergence on the technical indicators.
The release of the NFPR in November provided the catalyst that sparked a multi-month rally in the price of gold.
Could today’s NFPR ignite a similar reaction?
There are no guarantees, but the setup looks bullish.
And if gold sells off further following this morning’s report, then the positive divergence will likely become even more extreme. That will only increase the chances for a bullish reversal in the gold price.
Either way, the setup looks bullish for the weeks ahead.
Traders should look to buy the precious metal following this morning’s NFPR.
Best regards and good trading,
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Jeff Clark