Last Tuesday, I showed you the roadmap that bitcoin is most likely to follow.
It’s all thanks to a little-known secret…
In the 1930s, an American accountant called Ralph Nelson Elliott made a monumental discovery.
Mr. Elliott was obsessed with studying the stock market. And what he discovered is that the stock market doesn’t move in a random manner.
Instead, his studies showed that the markets follow a predictable pattern. He would go on to name his discovery the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP).
Here’s how it all works…
How Much Higher Can Bitcoin Go?
According to the EWP, markets trend and reverse in a predictable manner. You can follow along on this chart…
The trending phase of the market has 5 “waves.” Waves 1, 3, and 5, push the market in the direction of the larger trend.
Waves 2 and 4, on the other hand, see the market pull back against the direction of the larger trend.
Once we have a completed 5-wave cycle, we’ll see a counter-trend pullback in 3 waves. This pattern repeats itself over and over and over again.
We use numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) to label the trending waves. And we use letters (A, B, C) to label the countertrend components once a 5-wave cycle is complete.
Last week I shared where bitcoin sits within its current wave cycle.
As you can see from the labels, we still have one more wave higher to go before a more significant 3-wave pullback begins.
Of course, the big question is how much higher does bitcoin have to go?
Thankfully, the EWP holds a few possible answers.
If you look closely at the chart, the arrow pointing to Wave 5 comes in a little above $110,000. That’s no accident.
In addition to giving us a roadmap to the pattern that markets continuously follow, the EWP also helps us set price targets, too.
In the case of trying to narrow down a target range for Wave 5, we want to look at Waves 1 and 4 first.
Wave 5 begins as soon as Wave 4 comes to an end.
In the case of bitcoin, that means the end of Wave 4 and the start of Wave 5 took place on May 1 from a price of $56,500.
So now we have a starting point from which we can calculate our target.
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What Target to Look for Now
Next, we want to look at the total distance bitcoin travelled in Wave 1.
Wave 1 started on November 21, 2022, and ended on April 14, 2023. Over this period of time, Wave 1 travelled $15,590.
This resulted in bitcoin basically doubling in value as it went from $15,460 to $31,050 over the course of Wave 1.
One of Elliott’s discoveries was that Wave 5 tends to be similar in length to Wave 1 on either a price or percentage basis.
Well, a price-based relationship doesn’t make too much sense here. That would mean bitcoin would only go higher by about $15,590 from its May 1 low.
This would result in a final Wave 5 target of $72,756, which would still be a few dollars below the previous all-time high of $73,835.
So, it seems that a percentage-based target for Wave 5 is much more logical.
That would mean we should look for bitcoin to double in value from its May 1 low of $56,500. This gets us a final target of around $112,607.
Of course, these are rough approximations. It’s rare the market unfolds in such a picture-perfect manner.
But it’s still very important to keep this upside target in mind. Especially if bitcoin gets close to this target range.
Past bitcoin crashes have seen its value get crushed by over 80%. It’s very prudent to take gains off the table if you don’t want to sit through another vicious bear market cycle.
Happy trading,
Imre Gams
Analyst, Market Minute