Dear Reader,
Here’s what to look for in the action today…
General Trends
Friday marked the end of the seasonally strong period for stock prices. If the bulls were going to make a move towards new all-time highs, then that was the day to do so.
That doesn’t mean the market still can’t rally from here. But the seasonal winds are now in the face of the bulls rather than at their backs. So, it’s a tougher job.
There’s a reason “sell in May and go away” is a cliché on Wall Street. Mid-May to early November is traditionally a tough period for stocks.
Traders should be getting defensive here. Tighten your stops. Be tremendously selective on new long positions. And look to take advantage of good short-selling setups.
Here in the Market Minute, I look at how the broad markets are setting up for the day and give my thoughts on how to play them.
Let’s start with stocks…
Stocks
The stock market hasn’t done anything wrong yet. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 2399 last Wednesday. That was two days before I thought the market would peak. It has pulled back a bit since then. And it never reached my 2411 minimum upside target.
I’m conflicted here.
From a timing perspective, the S&P hit a new high within two days of where I was looking for it to do so. But the price was less than I thought we’d see. So I can’t yet rule out a possible move higher.
But I’ll confidently state that any gains from here will be short-lived.
I think the broad stock market is headed lower over the next few months… possibly much lower.
Traders need to get defensive. You need to raise stops on long positions and look for possible trades to profit on the short side.
The S&P 500 has support at 2381, 2373, and the 50-day moving average (MA) near 2364.
If the market loses support at 2364 – not likely until later in the summer or in September – then that’s it. We’ll have seen an intermediate-term top, and the market is headed for sharply lower stock prices.
Right now… my bet is to the downside. There’s not much upside left for stocks. And the downside looks substantial. So I’m more interested in establishing new short trades than long trades at this point.
Gold and Gold Stocks
The gold sector had a good week. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) gained more than 5% from the low on Tuesday. So if you added some exposure to the gold sector early last week, then you have a nice gain today.
But it’s just a short-term gain.
If you caught it, then you should consider taking some profits today or at least raising stops on your position. GDX closed Friday right on its 50-day MA. This is a resistance level, and it should keep a lid on the short-term upside for the gold sector.
I’m happy to take profits here and then look to buy back into the gold sector as GDX pulls back and forms a higher low around $21.50 per share.
I’ll update Delta Report readers on these trends throughout the day on Jeff Clark Direct.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
P.S. I love to hear your feedback. Send any questions, concerns, or great trading stories to me right here.