The Bigger Trend in Bitcoin is Up

Jeff’s Note: Before we dive into my colleague Imre’s essay on Bitcoin, I want to share my 3-second strategy to profit from the King of Cryptos. It doesn’t require a crypto wallet or an exchange… it works right from your brokerage account.

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Making profitable trades isn’t about timing the market.

It comes down to sticking with the larger trend.

When you’re following a bigger trend, you just need to be on the right side of the market and let the trend do its thing.

This is especially true in markets where the trend is clear, but the near-term price action is choppy. Bitcoin is a great example of this.

So, let’s take a look at the King of Cryptos…

As of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around the daily 200-period moving average (MA). The 200 MA is a strong, long-term trend indicator.

Once Bitcoin bulls reclaim the 200 MA by driving prices above this indicator, it should lead to a sustained rally. But in the short term, the price action is a bit more difficult to figure out.

Since April, Bitcoin has largely been trading sideways. And as of writing, it’s trading below the 200 MA.

But it’s important to note that Bitcoin has been in an uptrend since November 2022. This means the sideways consolidation is likely a temporary pause of the bigger uptrend.

To better understand a trend’s movement, think of it as a series of swing points moving in the same direction. With regards to Bitcoin, we’ve had a series of higher highs and higher lows since November 2022. This is the most important piece of information the chart has to offer.

Notice how Bitcoin steadily marched toward its 2023 highs of nearly $32,000. But on the way to that peak, it had a series of sharp pullbacks.

For example, look at what happened between February and March. Or between April and June. In each of those cases, Bitcoin pulled back by over 20%.

When we examine the most recent pullback from the highs of July 13 to the lows of September 11, we see something similar yet again. That pullback also measures just a little bit over 20%.

The entire premise of technical analysis is that past price action is the best guide to forecasting future price action. So, if history is any guide, we could see Bitcoin rally strongly from current levels.

Whether you want to buy Bitcoin now or not will depend on your time horizon as an investor or trader…

If you’re only interested in short-term swings, you might want to try to time the entry a bit more precisely.

But if you have stronger convictions that Bitcoin will exceed its previous all-time high of $69,000, then current prices could be very attractive. So adding more Bitcoin to your portfolio makes a lot of sense.

Just remember one thing: for now at least, the bigger trend in Bitcoin is to the upside. But there are still risks, which is why it makes sense for long-term holders to buy-in gradually, rather than making a big bet.

There’s still a chance that Bitcoin could break below the June 15 swing low of $24,750, which would put the current uptrend under pressure. In which case, we would have to reevaluate if that’s the time to add more Bitcoin, or whether further downside could be on the cards.

Happy trading,

Imre Gams

Are you trading in Bitcoin?

Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at [email protected].