Ever since the stock market entered “correction mode” nearly nine weeks ago, I’ve been arguing the S&P 500 needed to come back down and retest the February 8 closing low at 2581 before we’d have the conditions in place for a more sustainable rally.
Well… we finally got that retest. On Monday, the S&P closed right at 2581. Then, of course, the market rallied yesterday.
So, is that it? Is the correction over? Are stocks now ready to rally back up to new all-time highs?
I’m skeptical – partly because so many financial television talking heads were talking bullish yesterday. But mostly, I’m skeptical because of how the daily chart of the S&P 500 looks.
Take a look…
Yesterday’s 33-point gain looked impressive at first glance. But when viewed in the context of this chart, it’s hardly even a blip.
I just don’t see this chart as a bullish setup yet. The S&P is still below its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 2633. It still hasn’t popped above last week’s high (2650-ish). And there wasn’t any positive divergence at Monday’s low.
There’s still room for the index to rally further. Maybe it can reach the next resistance level at 2630 – which lines up well with the 9-day EMA.
But so far, this looks to me like only a short-term (one- or two-day) bounce.
Don’t get me wrong… I do think we are quite close to the end of this correction phase. Traders who buy stocks today will probably be quite pleased several weeks from now.
But this daily chart looks to me like it could use one more drop – if only to flush out the folks who got too bullish too early and to set up the conditions for a more sustainable intermediate-term rally.
Traders should start nibbling just a little on new long positions. But save the bigger bites for the next push lower.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Reader Mailbag
Today, a mixed bag from Delta Report and Market Minute readers – everything from trading results, to whether this market has more room to fall, to a new gold law making its way to Congress…
Good Evening Jeff. First off, as a longtime follower, I couldn’t tell you how much I appreciate all you do. The Market Minute is the first thing I read after I get my daughter settled for the morning.
Also, it was refreshing to see your recent explanation of how you wished you could move on from certain subscribers. It hurts my head to read some of the feedback.
Just recently Congress introduced HR 5404 – to define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold and of course we haven’t heard a peep in the mainstream media. My questions are do you see the US going back to the gold standard during Trump’s administration? I understand how difficult it would be to do so, but if this bill passes could this be the necessary step to begin the process? Keep up the great work and thank you again for everything!
– Rob
A bill to return the USD to the gold standard has been introduced into congress in March by Congressman Mooney of West Virginia. This has been referred to the financial committee of the house. This is real and can be looked up. What I could not verify is that it was put into the Omnibus bill which passed through both houses and signed by Trump. It is a 2,200-page document, but search on gold turns up no results. I first heard that the new dollar, referred to as the USN was to be backed by gold and silver, which are commodities. That word appears in the bill many times.
The concerning part is they want a stock market crash of 20 percent as a reason to implement it. It was also said a return to fair value. The global currency reset kicked off with the gold-backed yuan a week ago. Next to return to the gold standard is to be Zimbabwe which has enough gold for the entire world they said. After that is USA, and 290 countries to follow. China is helping Zimbabwe. US does not have enough steel to meet its own infrastructure needs, so this trade war with China may be all hot air. Look at how long it took for the gold backed yuan to get ready, the USN would surely take just as long.
– Margaret
Jeff, I wanted to start by saying I have followed you from your former publisher as a lifetime member and I am currently a lifetime member of Delta Report and would not trade the information I receive from you for anything! Keep up the great work!
I have just closed the best trading month of my entire trading career, mainly from your good advice! It seems that the added touch of volatility helps with the profit opportunities.
– Tom
Should we be shorting the Tesla stock? The company seems in very poor shape! The bonds downgrade and all!
– Charles
Thanks for the updates. I covered my second batch of a very large short position last Friday and am currently buying. If the S&P gets to the 400-day moving average and the .382 Fibnoacci Retracement around 2,470 I will load up long as heavy as I can.
Been listening to you for over a decade. Thanks for the ideas.
– Bob
I sold about 1/3 of my holdings at the end of January and have since been buying a little and selling a little. I vacillate between wanting to sell all and stay fully invested to “ride it out”. Earnings season will be key.
– Susan
As always, send in your trading experiences, questions, and suggestions right here – we always like to hear from you.