Andrew’s Note: Today Imre explains why markets are so misunderstood…
It comes down to a little-known indicator that can predict so much more than just the stock market…
On August 23 at 8 p.m. ET, Imre’s hosting an exclusive tell-all on this indicator and how it helped shape his latest trading breakthrough, Project X. You can tune in right here.
Almost everyone has a completely backwards understanding of what truly moves markets.
The stock market, for example, is so much more than just a collection of people bidding on prices.
It’s a real-time gauge of how the entire world is feeling at any given moment in time. If you can wrap your head around this concept, you’re going to be miles ahead of almost everyone else that calls themselves a trader or investor.
This means looking at markets through a completely different lens than what you’re used to.
Most people believe that news events, the economy, and policy decisions are what drive market behavior.
Surprisingly, it doesn’t matter.
Not when it comes to the stock market. Only one thing does – how people feel.
If that seems like wishy-washy voodoo, you’re certainly not alone.
And if there wasn’t a way to measure those feelings using science and mathematics, I’d agree with you too.
But fortunately for us, there is. And it’s what helped me quit my high paying job at Apple and go on to trade billions worth of currency, making millions for myself and my former clients.
As I mentioned earlier, the stock market is a real-time gauge of social mood. It provides specific and detailed numerical data to measure changes in mood.
In other words, there’s a clear record of prices going up and down.
There are two simple conclusions we can come to by using this price information. First, when the stock market is going up, social mood will trend positively. Second, when the stock market is selling off, social mood will trend negatively.
This information can be used not only for forecasting the future direction of the stock market, but also to predict what kind of music will top the charts, which movies are likely to be box-office hits, and what fashion trends are on their way in or out of popular culture.
For example, you may have heard of the relationship between hemlines and stock prices.
Miniskirts skyrocketed in popularity during the 1920s. The stock market at the time was also in a roaring bull.
When the market finally topped in 1929, preceding the Great Depression, a shorter hemline fell out of fashion. If you Google image search skirts during the 1930s, you’ll see that almost all women were wearing longer hemlines than they were just a few years before.
Price action analysis of the stock market can explain many other trends as well.
For example, bright colors are generally favored during bull markets. On the other hand, bear markets bring more muted tones into fashion. Imagine the advantage a designer or fashion house would have over their competition if they were aware of these relationships.
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The exact same analysis applies to the music and film industries. Generally speaking, bull markets popularize high-energy, feel-good music, as well as lighthearted movies. Bear markets on the other hand, usher in horror movies and melancholy music.
A great example is the original ‘Texas Chain Saw Massacre’. The release date for this iconic horror movie was October 1974. The timing was perfect. A bear market began unfolding in January 1973. By riding this wave of negatively trending social mood, the film ended up a box office smash.
If you’re interested in detailed studies that cover these topics, I’d encourage you to check out the written works of Robert Prechter. Mr. Prechter has pioneered this field of study since the 1970s and has shared many ground-breaking discoveries over the decades.
The applications of social mood analysis are varied. If you’re working with a film studio, then you could offer insights as to what kinds of movies would do best given what ground the stock market has recently covered.
For instance, how many people do you know of that knew interest rates were headed much, much higher?
I’m only aware of a small handful of analysts apart from myself that were exceptionally confident in making this call. Especially as central banks were telling us in no uncertain terms that they weren’t looking to raise interest rates anytime soon.
Stay tuned, because we’re going to cover not just interest rates, but the stock market, bitcoin, and gold as well.
Happy trading,
Imre Gams