Today we’re going to look at the king of cryptocurrencies – bitcoin.
And we’re going to do so through the lens of the most powerful trick I have in my toolbox.
I’m talking about the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP).
The EWP tells us that markets trend and reverse in predictable patterns.
The trending phase of the market has 5 “waves.” Waves 1, 3, and 5, push the market in the direction of the larger trend.
Waves 2 and 4, on the other hand, see the market pull back against the direction of the larger trend.
Once we have a completed 5-wave cycle, we’ll see a counter-trend pullback in 3 waves. This pattern repeats itself over and over and over again.
We use numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) to label the trending waves. And we use letters (A, B, C) to label the countertrend components once a 5-wave cycle is complete.
In the case of bitcoin, the last time we completed a full 5-wave cycle was between December 2018 to November 2021.
Following that 5-wave cycle, we then had a 3-wave pullback that lasted from November 2021 to November 2022.
You can see this cycle, with the labels attached, on the chart below.
As you can see, we have a clear 5-wave advance followed by a textbook 3-wave pullback. Once the 3-wave pullback is over, we should expect yet another 5-wave advance.
That’s the nature of the Elliott Wave cycle. If you can learn to recognize these waves, it puts you at an incredible advantage relative to other traders and analysts.
Next, let’s look at where bitcoin is currently situated within its next Elliott Wave cycle. You can check that out on the chart below.
This chart picks up right where the last one left off. The previous 3-wave pullback ended in November 2022. That’s when the current 5-wave cycle to the upside kicked off.
The current 5-wave cycle is still underway. As you can see from the labels, we still have one more wave higher to go before a more significant 3-wave pullback begins.
This should be overall great news for folks who have either bought bitcoin or are thinking about buying some.
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The only problem is… most people aren’t aware of this 5-wave cycle.
That’s why so many cryptocurrency investors are only ever paper-rich. They hold on to their gains for far too long, only to see them decimated by these 3-wave pullbacks.
Next time, we’ll go over how we can come up with some potential targets for bitcoin’s final wave to the upside.
Happy trading,
Imre Gams
Analyst, Market Minute