Gold has done nothing for over a year.
The shiny yellow metal was trading near $1,830 per ounce one year ago… Today, it’s near that same level.
So, during a year in which the S&P 500 gained 14%, bitcoin rallied nearly 20%, oil surged over 60%, and even Treasury bonds notched a 2% return – gold did nothing.
Oh sure, the metal has been a bit higher and lower over the past 12 months. But if you bought gold last February and then took a one-year nap, you’d wake up today and not see a difference.
That’s about to change…
Gold is on the verge of breaking out of a 12-month long consolidation pattern. And, that break could lead to a monster move.
Take a look at this long-term weekly chart of gold…
This chart has formed a year-long consolidating triangle pattern – which is a series of lower highs and higher lows. Gold is approaching the apex of the triangle. So one way or another, it’s going to break out soon.
We measure the height of the triangle from the low at $1,700 last March, to the high of $1,900 in May (two blue lines). That’s a $200 difference… and that’s the projected move on a breakout.
In other words, once gold breaks out from this pattern, it’s either headed up towards $2,000 per ounce, or down to $1,600.
Of course, the obvious question is… Which way will it go?
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My bet is to the upside.
Consolidating triangle patterns tend to break in the direction the chart was going prior to the formation of the triangle.
In this case, gold started to rally in early 2019. It gained 67% by the time it peaked in mid-2020. Then it pulled back and began consolidating. So, the odds favor an upside breakout.
It’s not a guarantee… But I like the setup.
It’s also worth noting that investor sentiment (a contrary indicator) is quite bearish towards gold.
That’s not surprising… Folks tend to get bearish on an asset that doesn’t do anything for so long.
Those folks have sold out of their positions. And anyone still holding onto the metal after a year of doing nothing is unlikely to sell – no matter what.
So, it’s hard to imagine where the selling pressure will come from to cause a downside break.
On the other hand, there’s a lot of potential buying pressure as bearish traders start to become bullish on gold.
So like I said, my bet is to the upside.
Either way, we should know for sure within the next few weeks.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Reader Mailbag
Do you think it’s time for gold to rally? Or will it stay around its current levels?
Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com.