Last Friday, we talked about the old market adage “Sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur.”
Well, the market sold ’em on Rosh Hashanah. Will it buy ’em on Yom Kippur?
Between the two holidays in 2022, the S&P 500 dropped about 140 points. And we figured that, since the market was setting up for a decline, it might very well sell off this time around too.
Last Friday morning, the S&P 500 was at 4505. Yesterday morning, the index opened at 4365.
Selling on Rosh Hashanah turned out to be a smart move.
Buying on Yom Kippur may prove to be equally as smart.
To be clear, Yom Kippur does not always mark the exact end to the seasonal weakness in the stock market. And I’m not suggesting that folks base investing decisions solely on the premise that people of Jewish faith can pay attention to the stock market again.
But the strategy of buying on Yom Kippur has a strong enough track record that there is a saying about it. So, it’s worth considering.
Last year, for example, Yom Kippur ended on October 5. The S&P 500 was trading near 3650.
Three weeks later, the index was near 3900. By the end of November, the S&P 500 was trading above 4050.
That’s an 11% gain in less than two months.
In 2021, the S&P 500 was trading near 4400 on Yom Kippur. Two months later it was at 4700.
Granted, Yom Kippur did not mark the exact bottom of the stock market last year or the year before. The S&P 500 did make lower lows as we headed into October.
But Yom Kippur occurred close enough to the stock market bottom that anyone with a time frame longer than a few days could have done well buying stocks on that Jewish holiday.
And selling stocks on Yom Kippur surely would have been a mistake.
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This week has been tough for most investors. And the selling pressure might continue a bit longer before we get to the final bottom of this decline.
But Yom Kippur ends on Monday. My guess is that by the time the stock market opens on Tuesday, we’ll be close enough to the bottom that buying stocks should work out profitably by Thanksgiving.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
READER MAILBAG
Did you take part in the Rosh Hashanah sales?
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