Don’t buy gold now.
The time to buy gold was last November when gold was trading near $1,630 per ounce, and we suggested we were on the verge of a “gold rush.”
Or, you could’ve bought gold for $1,825 an ounce two months ago when we showed a bullish setup on the chart.
But, if you’re looking to buy the shiny, yellow metal right now… you’re a little late to the party.
Gold traded near $2,050 per ounce yesterday. That’s just about its highest price ever.
And if history is any sort of guide, you’ll likely have a better chance to buy gold at a lower price in a couple of months.
Let me explain…
From a seasonal perspective, the price of gold tends to make an intermediate-term top in April or May. Then, it declines for a few months and makes an intermediate-term bottom sometime between July and October.
Of course, there are exceptions to that.
For the most part, though, buying gold at its highest price ever – just as it’s entering a seasonally weak period – tends to work out poorly.
It also doesn’t help that the setup on the gold chart is the opposite of what we looked at back in March and November.
Here’s an updated chart…
In March and November, as the price of gold was falling, the technical momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart were making higher lows.
This sort of “positive divergence” is often an early warning sign of an impending rally. And, we viewed it as a reason to be bullish on gold.
The picture is entirely different today.
Gold has been rallying. But, the technical momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart are making lower highs. This is “negative divergence.” And, it’s often an early warning sign of an impending decline.
Of course, there are plenty of macro-economic reasons to be bullish on gold.
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The shiny yellow metal is likely to be much higher in the months and years to come than where it is today.
But if you’re looking to add exposure to gold, it seems to me we’ll have a chance to do that at a lower price sometime within the next couple of months.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
READER MAILBAG
Have you been stockpiling gold when we’ve shown buy signals?
Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at [email protected].