Bitcoin made a monster move last week.
Last Monday, we looked at the 60-minute chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) – where the price is plotted on the chart for every hour that goes by. It had formed a tight “consolidating triangle” pattern. And, we figured it was setting up for a big move within just a few days.
This week, though, it’s the stock market’s turn…
First, here’s an updated look at that GBTC chart…
GBTC broke out to the upside of the pattern we pointed out last Monday. It finished the week 14% higher than where it started it. And it’s rapidly approaching my projected upside target just above $9 per share.
This week, I’m wondering if the broad stock market is setting up for a monster move as well.
Look at this 60-minute chart of the S&P 500…
Just like last week’s chart of GBTC, this chart of the S&P 500 has formed a consolidating triangle pattern. The index is approaching the apex of the triangle. So, it’s going to break out of it – one way or another – within the next few days.
An upside breakout projects a move up to the resistance line at about 2940. A downside break will likely lead to a move towards 2700.
Bullish traders probably have a slight edge here. After all, the final days of April tend to be seasonally bullish for stocks.
At the same time, though, the entire month of May tends to be seasonally bearish.
Since this is a 60-minute chart, and patterns in this time frame tend to play out within just a few days, the bulls get the edge in the short-term.
Going out a little further though, traders should keep in mind that this whole move off of the March lows is still just a bear market rally. It’s designed to punish traders who got too aggressive on the short side, and to coax the bulls back into the market just in time for another
move lower.
It seems to me that any rally this week is likely to accomplish those goals.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
P.S. No matter how the market acts this week, there’s no escaping the fact that we’re in volatile times. And, for folks who haven’t traded a bear market, it might be a difficult adjustment from the last 11 years.
For those folks, I recently kicked off my weekly live-streamed Crash Course, where I show attendees the situations I’m looking to trade throughout the week, and some trading techniques that will be essential in the new bear market. In fact, we’re starting our next session at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning. And all my paid subscribers can access it here.
But after today, we’re airing future Crash Course sessions only for subscribers of my elite membership tier, Jeff Clark Alliance. It comes with all my research advisories, and a few extra features exclusive to Alliance members. To learn more about a subscription, and how to secure access to the remaining seven sessions of the Crash Course, click here.
Reader Mailbag
Today in the mailbag, Jeff Clark Trader subscribers thank Jeff for helping them make a profit…
I just wanted to say a huge thank you for your XLK alert. I entered the trade and made around
60% profit. I can’t wait on the next trade!– Vishnu
Hi Jeff, I made a profit yesterday with XLK.
– Nick
And Sheri shares her experience learning about trading options…
Just a quick note, I’ve really appreciated the opportunity to learn something useful, without having to feel stupid. That means quite a bit… thank you.
– Sheri
Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com.