{"id":11097,"date":"2018-08-29T07:30:33","date_gmt":"2018-08-29T11:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=11097"},"modified":"2018-08-29T07:30:33","modified_gmt":"2018-08-29T11:30:33","slug":"the-most-important-move-in-the-dollar-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-most-important-move-in-the-dollar-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"The Most Important Move in the Dollar This Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’ve been wrong for two months.<\/p>\n

Back in June, I argued the US dollar had peaked<\/a> and the buck was in for a rough summer. Yet, for the past nine weeks, the dollar has stubbornly refused to fall.<\/p>\n

Even worse… At one point three weeks ago, the buck exploded higher – putting me seriously underwater on my short dollar trade.<\/p>\n

Since then, though, the market gods have granted me some relief. The buck has pulled back over the past two weeks. The US Dollar Index (USD) is back down to 95, which is just about where it was in late June. And by the look of the following chart, the dollar looks poised to move sharply lower…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The dollar has broken below its 50-day moving average<\/a> line (the blue line). The 50-day MA is often seen as the defining line between intermediate-term bull trends and intermediate-term bear trends. When a stock or an index is trading above the line, the intermediate-term trend is bullish. If the stock or index is below the line, then the trend is bearish.<\/p>\n

You can see how the strong rally in the buck really kicked into gear when the dollar index popped above its 50-day MA in April. We turned bullish on the buck back then<\/a>. But I turned bearish in late June, partly in anticipation of the dollar breaking below its 50-day MA.<\/p>\n

That didn’t happen… until this past Monday.<\/p>\n

The last time the dollar broke below its 50-day MA was back in December. The buck fell about 5% over the next six weeks. A similar move this time would have the dollar trading near 90 by early October.<\/p>\n

That sort of decline in the dollar would likely spark a solid rally in assets that trade counter to the buck – like most commodities and precious metals.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark<\/p>\n

Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Today in the mailbag, an outpouring of praise for Tuesday’s essay, “The Dance That Made My Summer<\/a>”…<\/p>\n

\n

Jeff, I am just a 60-year-old guy trying to learn how to make a buck in the market. But as I read your Market Minute<\/em> essay today (while working at my day job), I found myself slipping on my sunglasses (in the hospital ICU where I work) because no one there would want to see this guy with tears in his eyes, and I surely wouldn’t want to be trying to explain it.<\/p>\n

Thanks for sharing your experience, knowledge, writing skills, and the “big picture” moments! They are appreciated.<\/p>\n

– Chuck<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Beautiful story and wonderful memories for all who attended “The Dance.” If the investment “gig” doesn’t work out, you could always become a novelist!<\/p>\n

But in the meantime, please continue the great investment work.<\/p>\n

– Tony<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Hi Jeff, I am sitting in LA, waiting for my flight to Florence, having just read this email. Thank you so much for sharing such a wonderful story; it brought tears to my eyes. Even though I am going to Florence for work, as I walk around that wonderful city, I will be smiling as I watch for a mismatched dancing couple.<\/p>\n

– Mike<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

I was taking a minute from my work to read your story. I swallowed the lump that developed in my throat as the tears in my eyes blurred my vision. I thought of my own children, now grown and on their own.<\/p>\n

My wife looked over at me with tears streaming down my face and said, “What are you reading?” I said, “It’s Jeff Clark’s market update.” She said, “That bad?”<\/p>\n

I let her read the story for herself…<\/p>\n

Great story, Jeff. Blessings to you and your family.<\/p>\n

– Dave<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Great story, Jeff! Thanks for sharing! You did a great thing for those two young people – teaching them how to enjoy life and do good things for others! Your son may have received 50 bucks, but I think he received a lot more than that!<\/p>\n

– Paul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Beautiful experience, Jeff. Thanks for the heartwarming and delightfully tear-enticing account of some wonderful human family moments. And that $50 will buy a lot of ice cream, and even beer for an ever-thirsty freshman. Nice dad!<\/p>\n

– Marc<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Thank you, as always, for your kind and thoughtful letters. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar might close the summer sharply downward…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-11097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11097\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11097"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=11097"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=11097"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=11097"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=11097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}