{"id":11506,"date":"2018-10-03T07:30:13","date_gmt":"2018-10-03T11:30:13","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2018-10-03T07:30:13","modified_gmt":"2018-10-03T11:30:13","slug":"does-this-chart-mark-a-real-bottom-for-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/does-this-chart-mark-a-real-bottom-for-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Does This Chart Mark a Real Bottom for Gold?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>About one month ago, the gold sector sold off to what I believe marked an exhaustive low.<\/p>\n<p>After several weeks of declining, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) had dropped to just $17.50 per share. It was trading almost 20% below its 50-day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#movingaverage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">moving average (MA)<\/a> line &ndash; an extreme move, even for the volatile gold sector.<\/p>\n<p>And with the commercial trader net short position dropping to just 2,000 futures contracts (its smallest short position ever), we had a pretty good setup for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/has-the-smart-money-turned-stupid\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">calling a bottom in the gold stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Gold stocks then put on a blistering rally. GDX gained almost 10% in about one week. But, as is often the case when an oversold sector makes its first bounce off of the bottom, GDX ran into resistance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Before we could declare a &ldquo;real&rdquo; bottom was in place, GDX would have to come back down and form a higher low on the chart.<\/p>\n<p>That appears to be what happened last week. Take a look at this GDX chart&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/jc-stable.s3.amazonaws.com\/ee-assets\/channels\/articles\/mm\/201810-mm\/20181003-MM-01.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The chart now has a higher low in place. That&rsquo;s bullish, of course, since it supports the idea of the September low marking an important intermediate-term bottom for the sector.<\/p>\n<p>More impressive, though, is this chart now appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a reversal pattern that typically plays out as a stock moves from a bear trend to a bull trend. If GDX can close decisively above the neckline of the pattern, and above its 50-day MA (at about $19.30), then we could see a sharp, continued move higher.<\/p>\n<p>In that case, the potential target measures to $20.50 per share over the next two to three weeks. By then, if this move plays out, &nbsp;the 9-day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#ema\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">exponential moving average (EMA)<\/a> will have likely crossed above the 50-day MA &ndash; which shifts the intermediate-term trend to bullish. And then we can start talking about longer-term price targets.<\/p>\n<p>For now, though, I like the potential of this chart pattern to produce a decent rally over the next two weeks or so.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\">Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\">Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>If you&rsquo;re a <em>Delta Report<\/em> subscriber, don&rsquo;t forget&hellip; Tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET, Jeff is hosting a live Q&amp;A where he&rsquo;ll answer all your submitted questions, off-the-cuff and unscripted.<\/p>\n<p>This may be your only chance to ask him whatever you want to know about option trading, his market outlook, and even new features he&rsquo;s planning for the <em>Delta Report<\/em>. To submit your questions before tomorrow, <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And as always, send in your trading questions, stories, or suggestions <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">right here&hellip;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If this chart pattern plays out, we could see a big gold rally in the coming weeks&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-11506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11506"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=11506"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=11506"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=11506"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=11506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}