{"id":13457,"date":"2019-04-26T07:30:31","date_gmt":"2019-04-26T11:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=13457"},"modified":"2019-04-26T07:30:31","modified_gmt":"2019-04-26T11:30:31","slug":"the-one-chart-to-watch-for-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-one-chart-to-watch-for-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"The One Chart to Watch for Next Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Traders should watch the action in the junk bond market over the next few days.<\/p>\n<p>The action in junk bonds tends to lead the action in stocks. So, it&rsquo;s worthwhile to note that as the S&amp;P 500 rallied to a new all-time high this week, junk bonds have been slowly drifting lower.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s not a dramatic decline, yet. So, maybe there&rsquo;s nothing to worry about. Maybe junk bonds are just crying &ldquo;wolf&rdquo; on this move. But, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/watch-this-chart-next-week\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the last time<\/a> we noticed a bearish pattern developing in HYG &ndash; the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF &ndash; the S&amp;P 500 dropped 50 points in less than a week.<\/p>\n<p>Here&rsquo;s an updated look at HYG&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/jc-stable.s3.amazonaws.com\/ee-assets\/channels\/articles\/mm\/201904-mm\/20190426-MM-01.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The first thing you&rsquo;ll notice about this chart is that as HYG has been moving higher over the past two months, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#macd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MACD<\/a> momentum indicator has been moving lower. This sort of negative divergence is often an early warning sign of a potential reversal.<\/p>\n<p>Now, over the past week, HYG appears to be breaking down from a bearish rising wedge pattern. If this decline accelerates, then HYG could pull back towards its 50-day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#movingaverage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">moving average (MA)<\/a> line at about $85.66.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let&rsquo;s take a look at a chart of the S&amp;P 500&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/jc-stable.s3.amazonaws.com\/ee-assets\/channels\/articles\/mm\/201904-mm\/20190426-MM-02.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This chart shows a similar bearish rising wedge pattern with negative divergence on the MACD momentum indicator. A breakdown from the wedge could lead to a test of the 50-day MA at about 2832. That&rsquo;s a drop of nearly 100 points in the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>Longtime readers will recall that HYG tends to lead the broad stock market by anywhere from a few days to a couple of weeks. So, this week&rsquo;s decline in HYG is notable. If HYG continues to press lower next week, then the odds favor the S&amp;P 500 breaking down from its wedge pattern as well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\">Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\">Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Which sectors do you pay most attention to? Have you been following the action in HYG?<\/p>\n<p>And as always, you can send any other trading questions, suggestions, or stories to <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders should watch the action in the junk bond market over the next few days&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-13457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13457"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=13457"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=13457"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=13457"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=13457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}