{"id":15249,"date":"2019-11-02T07:30:45","date_gmt":"2019-11-02T11:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=15249"},"modified":"2019-11-02T07:30:45","modified_gmt":"2019-11-02T11:30:45","slug":"is-the-gold-breakout-a-fake-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/is-the-gold-breakout-a-fake-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Gold Breakout a Fake Out?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a wild week for the broad stock market, with the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all hitting new milestones&hellip; I just couldn&rsquo;t peel my eyes away from gold.<\/p>\n<p>There&rsquo;s been a lot of mixed sentiment about gold this year. Some see this year&rsquo;s rise in the yellow metal (about 18%) as the first innings of a grand new bull market. Others &ndash; including Jeff &ndash; believe we&rsquo;re due for a major correction before things really get going.<\/p>\n<p>Personally, I find it odd that gold has held onto its impressive gains even as the rest of the market is piling into risk. Normally, gold and stocks move opposite each other.<\/p>\n<p>Top that with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legacyresearch.com\/the-daily-cut\/central-bankers-are-loading-up-on-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">word that the world&rsquo;s central banks are loading up on gold<\/a>, and you wonder&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>If the equities story is so strong, why the consistent interest in gold?<\/p>\n<p>I have to break with Jeff a bit on this one&hellip; I think gold is more likely to run higher for the next few weeks, rather than lower. Today I&rsquo;ll show you why.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at this daily chart of gold&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.jeffclarktrader.com\/ee-assets\/channels\/articles\/mm\/201911-MM\/20191102-MM-01.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>From the start of September, gold has been trading in an increasingly narrow range&hellip; between the high of $1,560 per ounce and a low of about $1,470.<\/p>\n<p>When this sort of action occurs, it forms a falling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#resistance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">resistance<\/a> line and a rising <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#support\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">support<\/a> line. That results in a symmetrical triangle pattern &ndash; as you can see above. And with this week&rsquo;s action, it appears that gold has broken out of that pattern to the upside.<\/p>\n<p>The catalyst for this, of course, is the Fed&rsquo;s decision on Wednesday to cut interest rates further by 25 basis points. Gold bugs rightly see more easy money and central bank intervention as bullish for precious metals.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the big question is whether that breakout will hold. Sometimes a breakout is more like a &ldquo;fake out&rdquo; as the price retreats back below its new support line.<\/p>\n<p>To figure that out, it&rsquo;s best to look to the momentum indicators. And there&rsquo;s evidence that the latest bullish move in gold is just getting started.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#macd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MACD<\/a> bullish cross &ndash; where the MACD&rsquo;s short-term moving average line (black) crosses above the longer-term moving average line (red) &ndash; coincided with the breakout. You can see it circled blue in the chart above. That tells us the short-term momentum is in favor of gold moving higher.<\/p>\n<p>We can also see that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#rsi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Relative Strength Index (RSI)<\/a> is trading in a neutral position. Gold is neither overbought nor oversold, and thus has plenty of room to run higher.<\/p>\n<p>All this leads me to believe the gold breakout is for real&hellip; and that we should see it run higher through the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>If you&rsquo;re holding gold or gold stocks, sit tight. I&rsquo;m convinced you&rsquo;ll be rewarded for your patience.<\/p>\n<p>And if you&rsquo;re not, consider adding some exposure to the metal before the year is out.<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p>Mike Merson <br \/>\nManaging Editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S. <\/strong>The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is one of the main securities Jeff trades on his newest option trading advisories, <em>Jeff Clark Trader<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>As you saw today, gold provides profitable trading opportunities all the time. And with Jeff&rsquo;s guidance, you can profit from <a href=\"https:\/\/apiservices.krxd.net\/click_tracker\/track?kxconfid=tv310ob58&#038;kxadvertiserid=%%memberid%%&#038;kxcampaignid=%%=URLEncode(emailname_)=%%&#038;clk=https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT429393&#038;eid=MKT433319&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC057323&#038;email=%%emailaddr%%&#038;encryptedSnaid=%%ENCRYPTEDSNAID%%&#038;emailjobid=%%jobid%%&#038;emailname=%%emailname_%%\">specific, conservative option plays<\/a> &ndash; all while learning to spot these plays yourself.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/apiservices.krxd.net\/click_tracker\/track?kxconfid=tv310ob58&#038;kxadvertiserid=%%memberid%%&#038;kxcampaignid=%%=URLEncode(emailname_)=%%&#038;clk=https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT429393&#038;eid=MKT433319&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC057323&#038;email=%%emailaddr%%&#038;encryptedSnaid=%%ENCRYPTEDSNAID%%&#038;emailjobid=%%jobid%%&#038;emailname=%%emailname_%%\">Click here to learn more &ndash; and lock in our special offer of $19 for the first year.<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Today a subscriber shares his success following Jeff&rsquo;s recommendations&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Thanks for all your great services you offer. I have followed you for years, but now I have a lot of free time after ending my 20-year modeling career. I have been trading for 16 years on my own and have done very well. Now I am going to follow you 100% of the time, not many people have the discipline to do that.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 0px\">My first option trade was 2 weeks ago on your recent recommendation. I noticed you updated it and you still liked the setup even though it was down a bit from where you recommended it. I bought some contracts anyway and made 110% in 2 trading days and sold all my contracts for a nice chunk of change! (I should have only sold half, as they are trading for even more now) Now I know why you got hooked on options!<\/p>\n<p>On your new <em>Breakout Alert<\/em>, I think we will do even better.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Brad<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I just can\u2019t peel my eyes away from gold&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[52],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-15249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-merson"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15249\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15249"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=15249"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=15249"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=15249"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=15249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}