{"id":16324,"date":"2020-07-08T07:30:20","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T11:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=16324"},"modified":"2020-07-08T07:30:20","modified_gmt":"2020-07-08T11:30:20","slug":"those-crazy-speculators-are-at-it-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/those-crazy-speculators-are-at-it-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Those Crazy Speculators Are at It Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Option traders are getting that speculative urge again.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putcall\">CBOE Put\/Call ratio<\/a> (CPC) closed Monday at 0.73. That&rsquo;s the lowest reading since mid-June &ndash; the last time traders got super <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\">bullish<\/a>. That also happened to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/why-im-not-buying-fridays-buy-signal\/\">right before the S&amp;P 500 dived 200 points<\/a> in about one week.<\/p>\n<p>We <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/another-reason-to-be-cautious\/\">warned back then<\/a> the put\/call ratio is an outstanding short-term contrary indicator for the broad stock market. It compares the buying interest in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\">call options<\/a>, to the buying interest in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putoption\">put options.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A reading above 1.20 (the blue line) shows extreme bullishness among speculators and can indicate a good time to buy stocks for the short term. A reading below 0.80 (the red line) shows extreme bearishness and could indicate a good time to sell.<\/p>\n<p>This indicator has proven to be quite accurate at timing short-term reversals in the stock market. So, the extreme level of buying interest on Monday is a bearish sign.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at this chart of the CPC&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202007\/20200708-mm-01.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The red arrows point to extremely low readings in the ratio. All four of the previous signals were followed by immediate declines in the S&amp;P 500 of anywhere from 70 to 400 points. The most recent signal in June knocked 200 points off the index.<\/p>\n<p>So, there&rsquo;s a good reason to be a little bit cautious about stocks right here. Speculators are a little too willing to bet on even more upside in the market.<\/p>\n<p>They may be right for a short while. But, as the CBOE put\/call ratio has proven time and again, when traders are jumping over themselves to buy call options, stocks are closer to a short-term top than a bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Have you profited from using the put\/call ratio signal in the past? How did you do it?<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;d love to know. Write us your thoughts \u2013 and any trading questions you have \u2013 at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Option traders are getting that speculative urge again&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-16324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16324\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16324"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=16324"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=16324"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=16324"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=16324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}