{"id":16651,"date":"2020-10-12T07:30:50","date_gmt":"2020-10-12T11:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=16651"},"modified":"2020-10-12T07:30:50","modified_gmt":"2020-10-12T11:30:50","slug":"this-is-not-the-time-to-press-your-bets-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-is-not-the-time-to-press-your-bets-2\/","title":{"rendered":"This Is Not the Time to Press Your Bets"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you needed another reason or two to be cautious after the market’s big rally to kick off October, then pay attention to the McClellan Oscillators<\/a> for the Nasdaq (NAMO) and New York Stock Exchange (NYMO).<\/p>\n

The oscillators are momentum indicators that help identify overbought\/oversold conditions, and warn traders of the potential for a reversal in the markets (click here<\/a> to check out our new free resources page, including our comprehensive glossary).<\/p>\n

The oscillators are considered “extremely oversold” when they drop below -60. They’re “extremely overbought” when they rally above +60.<\/p>\n

As you can tell from the following charts, both the NAMO and the NYMO have gone from extremely oversold two weeks ago, to extremely overbought today…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Both oscillators hit extremely oversold levels during the September decline. And, they both closed in overbought territory last Thursday.<\/p>\n

Of course, that doesn’t mean the indicators can’t get even more overbought. But, just as selling stocks into oversold conditions in late September has proven to be a bad idea, buying stocks into the current overbought conditions is probably a bad idea as well.<\/p>\n

Add to this the inflated premiums in Volatility Index<\/a> call option prices, the potential bottoming pattern in the U.S. dollar, the tepid action in the junk bond market, and the bearish<\/a> seasonal tendency of the stock market in October – we have plenty of reasons to be cautious.<\/p>\n

This is not the time to be pressing bets on the long side by buying more stocks. In fact, now is probably a good time to trim some positions and take some money off the table.<\/p>\n

Stock prices are likely to be lower two weeks from now than where they are today.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In today’s mailbag, Jeff Clark Trader <\/em>member Barbara shares her experience trading with Jeff’s help…<\/p>\n

\n

I’m new, still learning, and have purchased several of your subscriptions. I’ve watched your presentations many times and appreciate your amazing story with obvious skill. I’m determined to follow through, and I know I have a great coach in you.<\/p>\n

With much appreciation, respect, and your help – I WILL get there.<\/p>\n

– Barbara<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming \u2013 and send us any questions \u2013 at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you needed another reason or two to be cautious after the market\u2019s big rally to kick off October, then pay attention to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-16651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16651\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16651"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=16651"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=16651"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=16651"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=16651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}