{"id":16702,"date":"2020-10-26T07:30:19","date_gmt":"2020-10-26T11:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=16702"},"modified":"2020-10-26T07:30:19","modified_gmt":"2020-10-26T11:30:19","slug":"this-might-cause-a-riot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-might-cause-a-riot\/","title":{"rendered":"This Might Cause a Riot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fat people don&rsquo;t riot.<\/p>\n<p>There are exceptions, of course &ndash; as we&rsquo;ve seen recently. But, generally speaking, a well-fed population is less likely to rise up in violent protest against inane government policies. We&rsquo;ll put up with a lot of stupidity as long as we&rsquo;re not starving.<\/p>\n<p>But when we&rsquo;re hungry, when there are food shortages, or when prices have risen so much that we can&rsquo;t afford to feed our families, then look out&hellip; that&rsquo;s when the trouble begins.<\/p>\n<p>I was thinking about this yesterday after I paid $8.99 for a pound of bacon. It wasn&rsquo;t even the fancy gourmet bacon either. It was the pre-sliced, shrink-wrapped stuff you find in the packaged food section of any old supermarket. The same stuff was $4.99 a pound just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n<p>Grocery prices are going up&hellip; fast.<\/p>\n<p>This isn&rsquo;t much of a surprise to anyone who&rsquo;s been paying attention to the recent action in the commodity market.<\/p>\n<p>Here&rsquo;s an updated chart of the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) I showed you a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/its-time-for-this-sector-to-play-catch-up\/\">few months ago<\/a>&hellip;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202010\/20201026-mm-01.png\" width=\"700\" style=\"width:100%; max-width:700px; margin: 0 auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This &ldquo;basket&rdquo; of commodities is up 13% since the late June bottom. That matches the increase in lean hog prices, and helps explain why bacon costs so much.<\/p>\n<p>But, when you look at some of the other components of the fund, the price increases are even more startling. For example, wheat is up 25% since June. Sugar has risen 26% in just the past month. And, the price of corn is 30% higher than where it was in August.<\/p>\n<p>For years we suspected the money printing policies of the Federal Reserve Board, and other central banks around the world, would create inflationary pressures and make a mess of the global economy.<\/p>\n<p>But, up until now, all that worrying was for nothing. Agricultural commodities were in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bearish\">bear<\/a> market for the past nine years. And, falling food costs masked the increase in prices of other things &ndash; like healthcare, electricity, entertainment, etc.<\/p>\n<p>Now, though, the central banks have nowhere to hide. Agriculture is back in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\">bull<\/a> market, and prices are rising. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\">Click here<\/a> to check out our new free resources tab, including our glossary and training videos.)<\/p>\n<p>Paying $8.99 a pound for bacon probably isn&rsquo;t enough to cause a riot.<\/p>\n<p>Sadly, though, I suspect we&rsquo;ll soon find out what price point will do the trick.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Have you noticed inflation in other common goods? Do you think this pattern will reverse once the pandemic begins to subside, or will the commodities market head higher?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you may have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fat people don\u2019t riot&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-16702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16702\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16702"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=16702"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=16702"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=16702"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=16702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}