{"id":16809,"date":"2020-12-02T07:30:56","date_gmt":"2020-12-02T12:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=16809"},"modified":"2020-12-02T07:30:56","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T12:30:56","slug":"youre-crazy-to-buy-this-stock-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/youre-crazy-to-buy-this-stock-today\/","title":{"rendered":"You\u2019re Crazy To Buy This Stock Today"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>All of a sudden, everybody loves Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>The King of Cryptocurrencies just traded at a new all-time high near $20,000 per coin. And, as happens when assets are in rally-mode, everybody wants a piece of it.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, most folks weren&rsquo;t all that interested in owning Bitcoin when it was floundering around $10,000 per coin a few months ago. But today, with Bitcoin trading nearly 100% higher, just about everybody is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bullish<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent surge of optimism came on Monday when the Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund announced it would invest up to 10% of its fund in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).<\/p>\n<p>GBTC is essentially an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#etf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">exchange-traded fund<\/a> (ETF) that tracks the price action of Bitcoin. It&rsquo;s the easiest way for most folks to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Rather than opening up a digital wallet, and dealing with whatever complications that entails, traders can buy shares of GBTC directly in their brokerage accounts.<\/p>\n<p>Guggenheim&rsquo;s announcement put a lot of attention on GBTC. And, folks rushed in to buy the stock.<\/p>\n<p>But that&rsquo;s a crazy thing to do right now&hellip;<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>GBTC closed on Monday at $23.19 per share. The net asset value of the Bitcoin it owns, though, is worth only $18.16 per share.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, investors are paying a 28% premium to buy GBTC versus buying Bitcoin itself. That&rsquo;s nuts!<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s like paying $1.28 to buy a $1 bill. No rational person does that.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, GBTC has ALWAYS traded at a premium to its net asset value. It&rsquo;s an easier way to buy and sell Bitcoin. So, until the cryptocurrency market becomes more liquid, GBTC is going to trade at a premium to its net asset value.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, though, that premium is usually around 10%-12%. The current 28% premium is excessive.<\/p>\n<p>And, when we&rsquo;ve seen this situation before &ndash; like in June 2019, December 2017, and in February of this year &ndash; it signaled the price of Bitcoin was nearing at least a short-term top.<\/p>\n<p>No matter how bullish you might be on Bitcoin, it doesn&rsquo;t make much sense to pay a 28% premium to own it by buying GBTC at the current level.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In today&rsquo;s mailbag, <em>Market Minute <\/em>subscriber Don replies to Jeff&rsquo;s cautionary tale in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/relaxed-turkeys-beware-of-coyotes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Thanksgiving essay<\/a>&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Your cautionary point is well-founded Jeff, but I believe it&rsquo;s a little premature. When the market becomes a &#8220;buying frenzy,&#8221; then it&rsquo;s time to watch the buy-to-sell ratio and take your profits on the upslope. When the ratio starts favoring the selling side of the ratio, then that&rsquo;s the time to unload, because that normally comes harder and faster than the upside.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;re not, at this point, in a &#8220;frenzy,&#8221; but it&rsquo;s coming. You&rsquo;re certainly not clairvoyant &ndash; no more than anyone else. But you&rsquo;re an extremely well-experienced &amp; well-seasoned investor that simply knows what&#8217;s inevitably bound to happen. Many thanks for your warnings to the &ldquo;little guys.&rdquo; Everyone needs to be prepared, as does their portfolio.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Don<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&hellip;From Jeff&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-tired-sector-can-use-a-break\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Friday essay<\/a>, <em>Jeff Clark Trader<\/em> member Jack agrees with Jeff&rsquo;s analysis&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">I&rsquo;m sure Jeff&rsquo;s technical analysis is rock solid. I just think &ldquo;the other shoe&rdquo; is going to fall because of the shutdown. It just seems logical that with so many small businesses declaring bankruptcy, banks will eventually suffer &ndash; unless there&rsquo;s a bailout I don&rsquo;t know about.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Jack<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&hellip;And finally, <em>Delta Report<\/em> members Bud and Naz leave us with their own insight in response to Jeff&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-silver-bulls-have-the-edge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">essay on silver<\/a>&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Well, Jeff, I haven&rsquo;t been doing this for long and I put my belief in your judgment. But, you&rsquo;ve lately seemed as perplexed as the rest of us. I think politics have way too much to do with the unpredictability of the marketplace, especially since October.<\/p>\n<p>When gold is sitting at the bottom, tech is all over the place, banks are sitting fairly still, and you&rsquo;re making a few tough misses, it tells me that our nation&#8217;s investors don&#8217;t know what to do with these &#8220;never before in our history&#8221; situations.<\/p>\n<p>When there was hope of a presidential transition, the market broke through. I don&#8217;t know what that means. But I do see the cause\/effect laws in place. Hopefully, early January will bring us easier speculations. Yours truly.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Bud<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Hi Jeff, I&#8217;m reminded of a famous quote by John Templeton, &#8220;Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>There is no bull side or bear side to the market, just the right side. We all hope to be on the right side more often than not.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Naz<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming \u2013 and send us any questions \u2013 at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\"target=\"_blank\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You want a piece of this? No rational person would&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-16809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16809\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16809"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=16809"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=16809"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=16809"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=16809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}