{"id":16940,"date":"2021-01-22T07:30:31","date_gmt":"2021-01-22T12:30:31","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-01-22T07:30:31","modified_gmt":"2021-01-22T12:30:31","slug":"this-crystal-ball-sees-trouble-ahead-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-crystal-ball-sees-trouble-ahead-again\/","title":{"rendered":"This Crystal Ball Sees Trouble Ahead Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 closed at a new all-time high &ndash; above 3850 for the first time ever.<\/p>\n<p>Technology stocks led the charge as the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) roared back to life after taking a few months to relax. And, speculators were once again jumping over themselves to buy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">call options<\/a>, and bet on the stock market continuing higher.<\/p>\n<p>But, the stock market&rsquo;s crystal ball was screaming &ldquo;BE CAREFUL!&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>We haven&rsquo;t looked into the crystal ball since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-crystal-ball-says-buy-this-dip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">late October<\/a>. Back then, as the market was caught in a nasty selloff, the crystal ball said to buy the dip&hellip; It predicted stocks would be higher in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Two weeks later, the S&amp;P 500 was 8% higher.<\/p>\n<p>Then, when we looked into the crystal ball in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/lookout-here-comes-october\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">late September<\/a>, it told us to be careful&hellip; we could be headed for a rough month. The S&amp;P 500 finished October 120 points below where it started the month.<\/p>\n<p>Regular readers know about the predictive power of VIX option prices. We&rsquo;ve used extreme deviations in option prices before as a sort of &ldquo;crystal ball&rdquo; for the immediate direction of the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>And right now, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#cboe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Volatility Index<\/a> (VIX) call options are much more expensive than the equivalent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putoption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">put options<\/a>. Whenever this condition exists, the broad stock market is vulnerable to a sharp and sudden decline.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>You see, VIX options are not like most stock option contracts, which can be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#exercise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">exercised<\/a> at any time.<\/p>\n<p>VIX options are European-style contracts &ndash; meaning they can only be exercised on option expiration day. This eliminates any possible &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#arbitrage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">arbitrage<\/a>&#8221; effect (the act of buying an option, exercising it immediately, and then selling the underlying security for a profit). So, VIX options will often trade at a discount to intrinsic value.<\/p>\n<p>For example, on Wednesday, the VIX closed at 21.60. At that level, the VIX January 27 $23 puts were intrinsically worth $1.40. But, they were offered at only $1.00. That&rsquo;s a $0.40 discount to their intrinsic value.<\/p>\n<p>If it existed on a regular, American-style stock option, you could buy the put, exercise it, and liquidate the position all day long &ndash; picking up $40 for every contract you traded. The European-style feature prevents that from happening &ndash; because you can only exercise the contract on the January 27 option expiration day.<\/p>\n<p>Because of this unique pricing structure, VIX options provide terrific clues about where most traders expect the VIX to be on option expiration day.<\/p>\n<p>The VIX January 27 $23 call options &ndash; which were $1.40&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary#otm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">out of the money<\/a>&nbsp;&ndash; closed Wednesday and were offered at $1.60.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, traders were willing to pay more for a VIX call option that was $1.40 out of the money than for a VIX put option that was $1.40 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#inthemoney\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in the money<\/a>. This tells us that traders who are making bets on the VIX expect the index to move higher over the next week.<\/p>\n<p>This sentiment is even more evident if you go out a little further and compare the VIX February 17 $23 calls to the VIX February 17 $23 puts. The calls closed Wednesday offered at $3.70, while the puts were only $1.85. (I use my trading quote system to track these prices, but you can find them at&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/quotes.freerealtime.com\/dl\/frt\/M?IM=quotes&amp;type=Quote&amp;symbol=VIX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FreeRealTime.com<\/a><\/strong>.)<\/p>\n<p>VIX calls are far more expensive than the equivalent VIX put options. So, VIX option traders clearly expect the index to move sharply higher between now and February 17. And, a rising VIX (rising <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a>) usually accompanies a falling stock market.<\/p>\n<p>So, if you&rsquo;re making short-term <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bullish<\/a> bets, be careful. The VIX &ldquo;crystal ball&rdquo; has a very good track record&hellip; I&rsquo;m betting it&rsquo;ll prove correct this time, as well.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong> VIX options are just one of the many tools I use to find winning trades for my <em>Delta Report<\/em> subscribers.<\/p>\n<p>Just in the last few weeks, we&#8217;ve booked wins of 80%, 100%, and 140% <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT497103&#038;eid=MKT514805&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC090142\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">using my trading toolkit<\/a>. And, I think there&#8217;s far more profits to come.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, just yesterday I recommended a trade in the telecom sector that I think has 130% potential in the next month. And, it&#8217;s still in my recommended range. To see how you can access it, <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT497103&#038;eid=MKT514805&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC090142\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">just click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Have you profited from Jeff&rsquo;s &ldquo;crystal ball&rdquo; predictions in the past?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you may have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>And it\u2019s shouting \u201ccaution!\u201d&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-16940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16940\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=16940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}