{"id":18316,"date":"2021-03-31T07:30:52","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T11:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=18316"},"modified":"2021-03-31T07:30:52","modified_gmt":"2021-03-31T11:30:52","slug":"its-a-good-time-for-a-vacation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/its-a-good-time-for-a-vacation\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s a Good Time for a Vacation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&ldquo;Man, this stinks!&rdquo; My oldest son, Grant, texted me yesterday, &ldquo;I haven&rsquo;t made a trade in two weeks. And I still can&rsquo;t find anything that looks good.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Of course, I understand the frustration. When you trade for a living, and your monthly rent payment depends on your ability to profit, it&rsquo;s hard to look at the computer screen and do nothing. You want to do something, anything, to justify your efforts.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Don&rsquo;t force any trades, son,&rdquo; I advised. &ldquo;You&rsquo;ll end up violating your discipline. You&rsquo;ll take on more risk than you should. And, you&rsquo;ll be worse off. It&rsquo;s better for you to be frustrated and bored, than to be foolish and broke.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Then, I explained why it&rsquo;s probably a good time for him to take a vacation. Because the choppy, sloppy action we&rsquo;ve seen in the market lately is likely to stick around for a few more weeks. At least, that&rsquo;s what our crystal ball says.<\/p>\n<p>Regular readers know I refer to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#cboe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Volatility Index<\/a> (VIX) option prices as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/how-to-read-the-stock-markets-crystal-ball\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">crystal ball to predict the future market direction<\/a>. When VIX <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">call options<\/a> are significantly more expensive than the equivalent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putoption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">put options<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a> is set to increase. And, that usually goes along with a falling stock market.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>When VIX puts are much more expensive than VIX calls, the opposite is true. Volatility is likely to contract. And, that&rsquo;s usually when stocks rally.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, VIX calls and puts are just about equally priced. That means the VIX probably isn&rsquo;t going anywhere, and neither is the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>For example, when the VIX was trading at 20.70 yesterday, the VIX April 7 $21 calls were trading for $1.50. The VIX April 7 $21 puts were trading for about $1.<\/p>\n<p>The call options were slightly more expensive than the puts. That suggests the VIX will likely be higher one week from today. And, that means stocks will probably be lower.<\/p>\n<p>But, the price difference in the options is not large enough to indicate that we&rsquo;ll see a BIG move in volatility, or in the stock market, over the next week &ndash; just more of the same choppy and sloppy action that has kept the S&amp;P 500 in a tight trading range for the past few weeks.<\/p>\n<p>If we glance out a little further, the picture looks the same&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>With the VIX at 20.70, the April 21 $21 calls were trading yesterday for $2.30. The VIX April 21 $21 puts were priced at $1.70.<\/p>\n<p>Here again, the VIX calls are more expensive than the puts. So, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bearish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bears<\/a> have a slight edge in the market over the next three weeks. But, the difference in VIX option prices isn&rsquo;t enough to suggest a big move.<\/p>\n<p>It certainly isn&rsquo;t enough of a difference to justify taking an aggressive stance in one direction over the other.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, based on the look of the crystal ball, this is probably a pretty good time for traders to take a vacation.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The good news though,&rdquo; I mentioned to Grant, &ldquo;is if the market can keep chopping around for a couple more weeks, it&rsquo;ll build up plenty of energy to fuel the next really big move. You&rsquo;ll have plenty of trades to make then.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px; width:100%;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In today&rsquo;s mailbag, <em>Market Minute<\/em> subscriber David thanks Jeff and Larry for their trading advice&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Hi Jeff, thank you for writing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-secret-to-a-long-trading-career\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">this article<\/a>. You definitely hit the nail on the head about looking back at trades that continued to move in the direction you wanted it to go. I&rsquo;ve been trading for ten years and know that I have a long way to go in my career. But I feel like I&rsquo;m finally getting the foundation laid out that helps me gain money and lose less.<\/p>\n<p>Taking profits is a big rule that I have. It&rsquo;s from many times of staying in the trade, hoping for it to continue on, only to lose all of my profit because it decided to reverse direction. I like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/how-to-handle-the-coming-surge-in-market-volatility\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Larry&rsquo;s way<\/a> of saying it too &ndash; &ldquo;put a &lsquo;P&rsquo; on the paper every day.&rdquo; Thank you for your insight, and very good advice that you continue to give the trading community.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; David<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming \u2013 and send us any questions \u2013 at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\"target=\"_blank\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This might stick around for a bit&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-18316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18316"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=18316"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=18316"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=18316"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=18316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}