{"id":18489,"date":"2021-06-03T07:30:48","date_gmt":"2021-06-03T11:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=18489"},"modified":"2021-06-03T07:30:48","modified_gmt":"2021-06-03T11:30:48","slug":"chinas-lifeline-to-the-u-s-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/chinas-lifeline-to-the-u-s-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Lifeline to the U.S. Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>During the height of pandemic panic in 2020, the dollar was a safe haven. That&rsquo;s because during times of turmoil, foreign central banks and other financial institutions used the greenback to anchor their currencies from collapse.<\/p>\n<p>So, it was no surprise that at the height of the pandemic panic from March 9 to the bottom of the crash on March 23, the dollar rose 8.3%. This was the stretch where the financial world was desperate for liquidity, as nearly every asset in the market was in free fall.<\/p>\n<p>But on March 20, 2020 &ndash; three days before the stock market bottomed &ndash; the dollar began to fall from its highs. With the initial shock of the pandemic behind us, the need for safe-haven assets started to disappear.<\/p>\n<p>Add to that unprecedented money printing from the Fed&hellip; And today we have the dollar trading at a three-year low.<\/p>\n<p>Since those highs last March, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 12.5%. That may not seem like a lot, especially compared to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a> in the stock market. But it&rsquo;s a huge move for the world&rsquo;s reserve currency.<\/p>\n<p>This decline has caused two major dynamics to emerge: The dollar&rsquo;s purchasing power of everyday goods and services is lower&hellip; And this has helped fuel the biggest commodities rally we&rsquo;ve seen in nearly a decade.<\/p>\n<p>This all sounds like bad news for the greenback. But on Monday, China&rsquo;s central bank sent a subtle yet effective signal that the dollar&rsquo;s decline is actually about to end&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>And, as is the usual case, Jeff <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/be-prepared-for-some-turbulence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sounded the alarm of a potential dollar reversal<\/a> long before this announcement ever happened&hellip; And before it was on anyone&rsquo;s radar.<\/p>\n<p>So today, we&rsquo;ll dig into what this announcement means for the dollar&rsquo;s near-term future, which sectors are most vulnerable, and what you should do to take advantage of this unique scenario.<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>China&rsquo;s Gift to the Greenback<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>On Monday, the PBOC (People&rsquo;s Bank of China) announced it will force financial institutions in the country to hold 7% of their foreign currency in reserve, up from 5%.<\/p>\n<p>That means that these institutions will have to hold more U.S. dollars in their treasuries than before. That will effectively reduce the supply of dollars&hellip; And force traders and banks to stop selling them, which should cause its value to rise.<\/p>\n<p>It effectively did this to stop its own currency, the yuan, from appreciating.<\/p>\n<p>Let me explain&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Chinese bonds have a relatively high-interest rate, and economic conditions are stable \u2013 a combination that&rsquo;s sending currency flows away from the dollar and into the yuan.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Contrary to popular opinion, China doesn&rsquo;t see a higher yuan as an offsetting mechanism for higher commodity prices&hellip; Instead, a higher yuan will hurt their exports. Because as the yuan appreciates, it becomes more expensive to import from China.<\/p>\n<p>So broadly speaking, this move from China encourages Chinese institutions to hold more dollars, which slows down currency flows from the dollar to the yuan.<\/p>\n<p>That could help strengthen the dollar. And if the dollar strengthens from here, it could reverberate across virtually all financial markets&hellip; This would give dollar-sensitive areas &ndash; especially the commodity sector &ndash; a breather from their breakneck rise.<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>It&rsquo;s Time for Commodities to Cool Off<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Commodities have racked up massive gains since the dollar&rsquo;s peak last year. Take the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for instance, which is up nearly 100% since the dollar peaked.<\/p>\n<p>With 80% of its holdings in foreign miners, the effect of a declining dollar has been substantial. The increase in GDX has not just been about gold and silver prices &ndash; it&rsquo;s also about the dollar falling.<\/p>\n<p>But it&rsquo;s not just about precious metals. Take another dollar-sensitive sector: agriculture. The VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) gained almost 110% since the dollar&rsquo;s peak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The price of agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn are tied to global currency trends. So, a declining dollar has boosted their value &ndash; and in turn, companies associated with the production and marketing of these products&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>But with China signaling that it&rsquo;s no longer comfortable with its currency appreciating, these sectors are about to take a breather.<\/p>\n<p>I&rsquo;ve been a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bull<\/a> on commodities for a long time, as have many of my colleagues at the Legacy family. Even before talks of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/two-schools-of-thought-when-all-you-need-is-one-indicator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">inflation<\/a>, and the new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/inflation-may-be-setting-up-the-trade-of-the-year\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">commodities supercycle<\/a> became mainstream topics.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s why I read our research first, <em>then<\/em> everyone else&rsquo;s.<\/p>\n<p>But, with the PBOC requiring banks to hold additional USD reserves, these key areas that have skyrocketed are now perfect to take profits and wait for better prices.<\/p>\n<p>If you have exposure to the commodities I mentioned today, it wouldn&rsquo;t be a bad idea to take profits. If you&rsquo;re still bullish, look to implement a trailing stop-loss on your position, to ensure your profits aren&rsquo;t wiped out.<\/p>\n<p>More aggressive traders can look to speculate on some downside in commodities by buying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putoption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">put options<\/a> on GDX or MOO.<\/p>\n<p>While I believe this will be a temporary condition, this is a great setup for traders seeking short-term profits.<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p>Eric Shamilov<br \/>\nContributing Editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Will you be taking Eric&rsquo;s advice on profiting on commodities now, or will you hold a while longer?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These sectors could be taking a breather&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[13],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-18489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-eric-shamilov"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18489"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=18489"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=18489"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=18489"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=18489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}