{"id":18584,"date":"2021-06-21T07:30:28","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T11:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=18584"},"modified":"2021-06-21T07:30:28","modified_gmt":"2021-06-21T11:30:28","slug":"the-talking-heads-might-be-wrong-about-this","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-talking-heads-might-be-wrong-about-this\/","title":{"rendered":"The Talking Heads Might Be Wrong About This"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is supposed to be a bad week for the stock market.<\/p>\n

Just about everybody knows that the second half of June leans bearish<\/a> for stocks. At least, that’s what most of the talking heads on the financial news networks were telling us last week.<\/p>\n

They repeatedly said, “We’re heading into a seasonally bearish period for stocks.”<\/p>\n

Then, following Friday’s ugly performance by the S&P 500 – which fell 1.3% – we got a whole weekend of bearish talk on Twitter, internet forums, and even in my local pub.<\/p>\n

So, clearly, folks are expecting stocks to fall this week.<\/p>\n

But, I’m not so sure about that…<\/p>\n

Regular readers know I’ve been cautious on the stock market since early June<\/a>, when our “crystal ball” was predicting the Volatility Index<\/a> (VIX) would be higher – and that typically goes along with a falling stock market.<\/p>\n

Sure enough, the VIX closed Friday about 18% higher than where it was back then. The S&P 500 closed Friday about 50 points lower. So, we’ll give the crystal ball a “win” for that prediction.<\/p>\n

And, if we were going to get an even deeper decline in the stock market this week, then the VIX call options<\/a> should still be a lot more expensive than the VIX put options<\/a>… But they’re not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The VIX call and put prices are about even.<\/p>\n

And, several other indicators are already at “extremely oversold” levels. So, I’m not sure how much energy is left to fuel a large decline.<\/p>\n

For example, the McClellan Oscillators<\/a> (NAMO and NYMO) – which helps measure overbought and oversold readings on the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange – closed below their lower Bollinger Bands<\/a> (BB) on Friday.<\/p>\n

Take a look at these charts…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n

This has happened two previous times this year. Each time marked at least a short-term bottom in the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Traders should also consider that the VIX closed above its upper BB on Friday. So, it’s set to trigger a broad stock market buy signal when it closes back inside the bands.<\/p>\n

And that could happen as soon as today…<\/p>\n

So, despite the seasonal weakness, the bearish action last week, and the TV talking heads preaching caution, I’m more inclined to want to be a buyer early this week rather than a seller – at least for a short-term move higher.<\/p>\n

We can get cautious again once all the talking heads turn bullish<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark<\/p>\n

Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Do you agree more with the talking heads online, or with Jeff’s prediction using the technical indicators? And, will you be buying stocks this week or selling?<\/p>\n

Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you may have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I\u2019m not so sure about this move…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-18584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18584\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18584"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=18584"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=18584"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=18584"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=18584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}