{"id":18773,"date":"2021-08-04T07:30:14","date_gmt":"2021-08-04T11:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=18773"},"modified":"2021-08-04T07:30:14","modified_gmt":"2021-08-04T11:30:14","slug":"this-looming-threat-has-investors-worried","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-looming-threat-has-investors-worried\/","title":{"rendered":"This Looming Threat Has Investors Worried"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There&rsquo;s a lot of conflicting information about COVID-19 circulating right now&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Is there a fourth wave coming, led by the delta variant?<\/p>\n<p>Are we due for more lockdowns and a market crash?<\/p>\n<p>The looming threat of the virus has many investors worried, so today I want to take a look at the current state of the country &ndash; and where I believe we&rsquo;re headed next.<\/p>\n<p>To start off, the CDC says there&rsquo;s a strong possibility that we&rsquo;re already in a fourth wave of COVID-19, led by the much-publicized delta variant.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, it&rsquo;s likely the FDA will approve the Pfizer vaccine for general use within the next two months. That&rsquo;s a big step for a lot of people who are hesitant about taking an unapproved drug&hellip; and it&rsquo;s essential for a true recovery.<\/p>\n<p>And on Monday, the CDC revealed that 70% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. That comes about a month after the Fourth of July, which was President Biden&rsquo;s original target date of having 70% of the country vaccinated.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. is now among a handful of countries that have vaccinated most of the population.<\/p>\n<p>If we dig a little deeper into the COVID-19 statistics, the vast majority of vaccinated individuals are well protected. Even those who do develop breakthrough infections don&rsquo;t tend to end up in the hospital &ndash; yet it&rsquo;s still reasonable to wonder if more guidelines like social distancing will be reintroduced.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless, the government&rsquo;s goal is clear &ndash; get as many people as possible vaccinated and carry on as normal.<\/p>\n<p>The &ldquo;new&rdquo; normal likely doesn&rsquo;t call for social distancing, but rather booster shots as the virus mutates in the future. Like the common cold and the flu, viruses like COVID-19 naturally mutate all the time.<\/p>\n<p>That means we&rsquo;re moving into a new phase of the recovery where we&rsquo;ll just have to live with the virus.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;ll have to live with the vaccine too, as new data tells us that Pfizer&rsquo;s vaccine loses its efficacy after about six months. That&rsquo;s great news for investors. The company will be selling new doses every year&#8230; maybe even every six months.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Now, in real estate, the moratorium on evictions expired over the weekend. After all, it makes sense to remove supports if most people are vaccinated.<\/p>\n<p>That also means there&rsquo;s no excuse for not returning to work now. We need everyone to have an incentive to work and apply for jobs. That&rsquo;s how we get back to full employment and economic normalcy.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of economic normalcy, the Congressional Budget Office announced on Monday that they estimate the Federal deficit will shrink from $3 trillion to about $1.2 trillion next year. That&rsquo;s a massive decline in spending and suggests the government is confident we&rsquo;re not going back into lockdown.<\/p>\n<p>The big question is how dependent is the wider stock market on that extra government spending? My gut tells me it was a big part of the run up in prices over the last year.<\/p>\n<p>If there are fewer bonds being issued, there&rsquo;ll be fewer bonds for the Fed to buy. They&rsquo;re already talking about tapering their level of purchases.<\/p>\n<p>And if the government no longer needs to borrow as much, then the Fed won&rsquo;t have much choice&hellip; they&rsquo;ll have to reduce their purchases, or they&rsquo;d end up buying most of the market.<\/p>\n<p>All these recent events bring me to say it&rsquo;s a good time for bonds. There&rsquo;s always demand for bonds from pensions, insurance companies, individuals, and other governments. With fewer bonds being issued, that could easily push the price up.<\/p>\n<p>August is generally a good month for bonds. In fact, it&rsquo;s the month which historically has the strongest returns for bonds.<\/p>\n<p>Less supply and strong demand continue to support the market, and it&rsquo;s a recipe for a bull market. Summertime also means that people are going on vacation, and many investors choose to park their cash in Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s why the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) continues to trend higher, and I think it will keep doing so for the time being.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, I think we have less to fear from the delta variant than we do from a big reduction in government stimulus.<\/p>\n<p>All the best,<\/p>\n<p>Eoin Treacy,<br \/>Co-editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong> Last week in my video series, I went over what&rsquo;s needed for a big bull market, the Fed&rsquo;s FOMC meeting, and what liquidity means for the market. If you missed it, you can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/were-entering-a-self-fulfilling-market-cycle\/#eoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click right here<\/a> to watch.<\/p>\n<p>And, tune in on Friday to hear my thoughts about what&rsquo;s been going on in the markets this week.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\">Reader Mailbag<\/h2>\n<p>In today\u2019s mailbag, <em>Delta Report<\/em> member Chris comments on Jeff\u2019s trade ideas&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p>Jeff, as an inexperienced trader, I appreciate your explanations of trade ideas. They help me to learn trading and have confidence in our trades. Keep up the good work you&rsquo;re doing.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><strong>&ndash; Chris<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming &ndash; and send us any questions &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many variables could impact the market&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[67],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-18773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-eoin-treacy"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18773\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18773"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=18773"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=18773"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=18773"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=18773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}