{"id":19045,"date":"2021-10-14T07:30:17","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T11:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=19045"},"modified":"2021-10-14T07:30:17","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T11:30:17","slug":"how-to-trade-a-choppy-mess","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/how-to-trade-a-choppy-mess\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Trade a Choppy Mess"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If the market&rsquo;s crystal ball had shoulders, it would be shrugging them right now.<\/p>\n<p>One of my favorite indicators offers no clue as to where the stock market is headed next.<\/p>\n<p>So, that means we&rsquo;re probably in for a lot of choppy action over the next two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Let me explain&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Long-time readers know I look at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#cboe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Volatility Index<\/a> (VIX) option prices as sort of a &ldquo;crystal ball&rdquo; to determine the immediate direction of the broad stock market. And, this crystal ball has a nearly flawless track record.<\/p>\n<p>Without getting into the intricate details of VIX option pricing, the basic theory is that when VIX <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">call options<\/a> are far more expensive than the equivalent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#putoption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">put options<\/a>, the VIX is most likely headed higher.<\/p>\n<p>And, since a rising VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market, this condition is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bearish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bearish<\/a> for stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever VIX put options are far more expensive than the equivalent calls, the VIX is likely headed lower. That condition usually accompanies a rising stock market.<\/p>\n<p>So, traders who are looking for clues as to the short-term direction of the market can usually find it by paying attention to VIX option prices.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, though, the crystal ball isn&rsquo;t offering any clues&hellip;<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>When the VIX was trading at $20 yesterday, the VIX October 20 $20 calls &ndash; which expire next week &ndash; were trading for $1.20. The VIX October 20 $20 puts were trading for the exact same price. In other words, the VIX options were not favoring a move in either direction.<\/p>\n<p>The same was true for the VIX options that expire on October 27. The VIX $20 calls and puts were both trading for about $1.50.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;d have to go out to the November 3 expiration date before we saw much of a price differential. For that expiration date, VIX calls are about 80% more expensive than the equivalent puts.<\/p>\n<p>So, that&rsquo;s something to keep in the back of our minds &ndash; and be aware of the possibility of market weakness as we roll into next month.<\/p>\n<p>But, for the next two weeks, the crystal ball suggests the stock market isn&rsquo;t going anywhere.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn&rsquo;t mean we won&rsquo;t see big moves in one direction or the other. Heck, the VIX is sitting near 20 &ndash; which is an elevated level &ndash; so were going to see some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a>. But, whatever big moves we get one day are likely to be reversed the next.<\/p>\n<p>That is, of course, what we&rsquo;ve been seeing for the past couple of weeks&#8230; The market falls one day, and then bounces back the next. The market rallies on the opening of trading, and then sells off by the close.<\/p>\n<p>The market has been a choppy mess for most of the month. And, according to the crystal ball, it&rsquo;s likely to stay a choppy mess.<\/p>\n<p>So, how do you trade it?<\/p>\n<p>Keep your positions small. Trade only the best, highest conviction setups. And, take profits quickly because just about every big move in the broad stock market will reverse &ndash; at least for the next two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" alt=\"signature\"><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\">Reader Mailbag<\/h2>\n<p>Do you rely on the \u201ccrystal ball\u201d to calculate your next move? If so, do you usually see big gains?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The \u201ccrystal ball\u201d isn\u2019t offering any clues&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19045\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19045"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19045"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19045"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19045"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}