{"id":19084,"date":"2021-10-22T07:30:39","date_gmt":"2021-10-22T11:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=19084"},"modified":"2021-10-22T07:30:39","modified_gmt":"2021-10-22T11:30:39","slug":"bitcoin-is-back-but-is-it-back-with-a-vengeance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/bitcoin-is-back-but-is-it-back-with-a-vengeance\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Is Back\u2026 But Is It Back With a Vengeance?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It seems like bitcoin headline writers have been working overtime this year&hellip; For example, the tweets from Elon Musk, the ban from Turkey, two separate bans from China, the list goes on.<\/p>\n<p>Every hype-filled headline has proven to be an opportunity to either sell when things get too good or buy when the mood gets negative.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the excitement is back&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>This week, the SEC greenlighted the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), with more exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to follow&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>The positive sentiment around this event helped send bitcoin to new all-time highs.<\/p>\n<p>But, as bitcoin regained those all-time highs on Wednesday, it finds itself in a danger zone because that excitement isn&rsquo;t coming from institutional investors&hellip;<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>When the Whales Just Aren&rsquo;t Interested&hellip;<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Before I explain, I want to point out that we&rsquo;re by no means <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bearish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bears<\/a> on bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Regular <em>Market Minute<\/em> readers may recall <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/what-risk-and-reward-tells-us-about-bitcoins-next-move\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">when we recommended $42K<\/a> as another one of those opportunities to buy with open arms. We wrote, &rdquo;&hellip;long-term <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bulls<\/a> should get excited about bitcoin hovering around $42K&hellip;&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>It turns out, we weren&rsquo;t the only ones that saw this as a buy zone&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>One indicator I use to figure out if institutional investors, or &ldquo;whales,&rdquo; are buying is the price differential between bitcoin traded on Coinbase and other exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>I look at Coinbase because it&rsquo;s a regulated, buttoned up, publicly traded company.<\/p>\n<p>Institutional investors &ndash; like Cathie Wood for instance &ndash; can&rsquo;t take the risk of being involved with smaller exchanges. So, when they make a transaction, they tend to do it on Coinbase.<\/p>\n<p>This indicator reveals key technical levels, and I&rsquo;ve even used it to recommend buying at the $30K level not once&hellip; but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/nearly-any-bitcoin-dip-to-this-level-is-a-buy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">three separate times<\/a> here in <em>Market Minute<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>So, let&rsquo;s take a look at how these price differentials looked on two separate exchanges when bitcoin was taking off from $42K between September 30 and October 1&hellip;<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: block; height: auto; max-width: 700px; width: 100%; margin: 0px auto;\" width=\"700\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202110\/20211022-mm-03_pwx283.png\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202110\/20211022-mm-03_pwx283.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The chart shows the price differential on Coinbase vs. Bitfinex (black dotted line) overlaid on the price of bitcoin (blue).<\/p>\n<p>Not only did the price differential track bitcoin perfectly, those who were buying on Coinbase were willing to pay a <em>$600 premium<\/em> to Bitfinex &ndash; a sign that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-driving-force-behind-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">whales<\/a> (big holders of bitcoin) were actively buying that level.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, this was coming off the fallout from China&rsquo;s all-out crypto ban &ndash; which sent bitcoin down 20% from $50K&hellip;<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>What ensued was a fast and furious rally from $42K to new all-time highs&#8230; a 60% gain in just 3 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>But now, let&rsquo;s take a look at this same indicator on the day it broke its previous high of $64,869 this Wednesday&hellip;<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: block; height: auto; max-width: 700px; width: 100%; margin: 0px auto;\" width=\"700\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202110\/20211022-mm-05_pwx283.png\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202110\/20211022-mm-05_pwx283.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The chart doesn&rsquo;t exactly show excitement from institutional buyers&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>In fact, there are a couple of spots on the chart that are troubling. As bitcoin crossed $65K to make new highs, the premium on Coinbase turned negative.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the premium never crossed $100 &ndash; on a day that bitcoin made new highs.<\/p>\n<p>Which means the whales were buying with open arms at $42K, but they may have been selling into strength at $65K.<\/p>\n<p>All of this comes against the backdrop of a new ETF that&rsquo;s been years in the making. But, there are a lot of structural problems with this ETF, which may be why the whales are hesitant.<\/p>\n<p>The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) gives investors exposure to bitcoin through futures that track the price of bitcoin, not through bitcoin directly.<\/p>\n<p>To clarify, futures-based products are not good vehicles for long-term investors. (For a more detailed explanation on why that is, you can refer to our previous essay <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/dont-fear-the-reaper-when-it-comes-to-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">on roll yields here<\/a>, where we discuss how futures can deteriorate returns over the long haul.)<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has a long history of overreacting to news events&hellip; with the recent ETF reveal being no different.<\/p>\n<p>And, although bitcoin just made all-time highs, the lack of enthusiasm from the big whales should make investors take a step back, take some profits, and wait for better price levels.<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p>Eric Shamilov<br \/>\nContributing Editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Where do you stand on bitcoin? Do you think momentum from the recent breakout will carry forward?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This comes against the backdrop of a new ETF&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[13],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-eric-shamilov"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19084\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19084"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19084"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19084"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19084"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}