{"id":19140,"date":"2021-11-12T07:30:27","date_gmt":"2021-11-12T12:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=19140"},"modified":"2021-11-12T07:30:27","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T12:30:27","slug":"this-pullback-is-the-start-of-something-bigger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-pullback-is-the-start-of-something-bigger\/","title":{"rendered":"This Pullback Is the Start of Something Bigger"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>These days, a 2% pullback from an all-time high feels like a market crash, with some already calling this another opportunity to &ldquo;buy the dip.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>But, I&rsquo;m not so sure&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s one thing if the market is expressing their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bullish<\/a> views by buying and owning shares of companies.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s another when they simply buy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">call options<\/a>, hoping momentum continues in their favor.<\/p>\n<p>This option buying spree has been behind the recent parabolic price action, not actual stock ownership&hellip;<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>What Tesla Means for the Options Market&hellip;<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>You see, the options market itself has become somewhat of a bubble&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>One sign of a bubble is when it starts to pervade society, and this is exactly what&rsquo;s happening right now.<\/p>\n<p>Novice traders, with little-to-no experience other than YouTube videos (put together by other novice traders), have noticed that you can make crypto-like returns through the options market, which is true. <\/p>\n<p>For instance, <em>Delta Report<\/em> subscribers were able to more than triple their money on Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) for a 220% gain.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s because we rely on both economic and fundamental principles to make trading decisions.<\/p>\n<p>And more importantly, we don&rsquo;t just concentrate on the direction of the underlying stock &ndash; that&rsquo;s only half the battle&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>We slice and dice the option <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#premium\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">premium<\/a> into the sum of its parts to see its true value. And that&rsquo;s why fundamentally driven options strategies can generate crypto-like returns even when the market gets slow.<\/p>\n<p>So, when Elon Musk put out a Twitter poll asking whether he should sell 10% of his stake in Tesla (TSLA) &ndash; which topped out at $1,200 a share and promised to abide by the results &ndash; it was stunning to see how the options market was still pricing in gains of 50% or more by the November 17 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#expirationdate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">expiration date<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Regular <em>Market Minute<\/em> readers got that warning loud and clear in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/buy-first-ask-questions-later\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">October 29 essay<\/a> where we gave you a glimpse into how we assess value in call options, using TSLA as example (before the poll came out).<\/p>\n<p>Twitter voted to sell&hellip; and he did.<\/p>\n<p>So now every single one of those call options we highlighted are set to expire and will be worthless.<\/p>\n<p>Which brings me back to the original point&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Right now, option volumes are driving this market higher, not new stock ownership.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s not just TSLA though, call options across the market are being snatched up by frenzied investors.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at this chart&hellip;<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: block; height: auto; max-width: 700px; width: 100%; margin: 0px auto;\" width=\"700\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202111\/20211112-mm-01_qpe374.png\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202111\/20211112-mm-01_qpe374.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The recent spike is substantial, and the fast and furious selloff in TSLA from its peak may be what&rsquo;s in store for broader parts of the market.<\/p>\n<p>You see, owning a call option gives you <em>the right to buy<\/em> the stock at a predetermined date and price&hellip; you <em>don&rsquo;t own<\/em> the shares until the option is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#exercise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">exercised<\/a> (assuming it doesn&rsquo;t expire worthless).<\/p>\n<p>But here&rsquo;s what most people don&rsquo;t know&hellip;<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>When someone buys a call option, that means the market maker usually has to sell it to them.<\/p>\n<p>Market makers are designated by the exchanges to provide liquidity and an orderly flow to markets. So, when someone buys a call option, they take the opposite side of that trade.<\/p>\n<p>But their job isn&rsquo;t to take directional risk, so they hedge themselves by buying shares of the underlying stock (each option contract represents the right to buy 100 shares).<\/p>\n<p>So, at option expiry they close out their hedge and <em>sell their shares<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s one reason behind the few times we&rsquo;ve seen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a> this year during option expiration.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So, this brings us back to the recent pullback&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>A 2% pullback from the highs might not seem significant, but it may be the start of a bigger pullback. That&rsquo;s because, according to that chart above, TSLA isn&rsquo;t the only one.<\/p>\n<p>With all those calls set to expire on November 17, right before the Thanksgiving break, we can expect the market to take another dip.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, the S&amp;P 500 has been bouncing off its short-term eight-day moving average (MA) pretty consistently &ndash; until this Wednesday. That level is now acting as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#resistance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">resistance<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, the market tried to break above this area (about 4670 on the S&amp;P 500) and was rejected to close at 4649 on Thursday&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>If it can&rsquo;t reclaim that eight-day MA line soon, then <em>this<\/em> dip will have <em>another<\/em> dip&hellip; all the way down to at least 4500, the 50-day MA, or about 3% lower from current levels.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the market traded that low was right around the time the options market went parabolic.<\/p>\n<p>I don&rsquo;t think that&rsquo;s just a coincidence&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>So, investors shouldn&rsquo;t be looking for more gains from the stock market here. Instead, consider taking profits as this market continues to look frothy around expiration.<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p>Eric Shamilov<br \/>\nAnalyst, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In today&rsquo;s mailbag, <em>Jeff Clark Trader<\/em> member Peter comments <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-could-signal-an-uptrend-in-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">on Wednesday&rsquo;s <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/a>&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\">Gold broke through the neckline today! So I think gold is going higher! Thanks for your chart.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\"><strong>&ndash; Peter<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\"><strong>feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Twitter poll made this worthless.   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[13],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-eric-shamilov"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19140\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19140"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19140"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19140"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19140"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}