{"id":19270,"date":"2021-12-29T07:30:07","date_gmt":"2021-12-29T12:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=19270"},"modified":"2021-12-29T07:30:07","modified_gmt":"2021-12-29T12:30:07","slug":"the-year-of-the-safe-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-year-of-the-safe-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"The Year of the Safe Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-most-important-chart-for-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">final essay of 2020<\/a>, I wrote that 2021 was likely to be the year of the safe trade.<\/p>\n<p>I couldn&#8217;t have been more wrong.<\/p>\n<p>I believed that all of the craziness that happened in 2020 wasn&rsquo;t going to repeat&hellip; and that the market was likely to get hit with a strong bout of common sense in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>That theory was proven wrong just a few weeks into the New Year&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>First, we got the \u201cmeme\u201d stocks craziness. <\/p>\n<p>Companies like GameStop, AMC, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, and others that were previously teetering on the brink of bankruptcy saw their stocks blast higher by hundreds of percent &ndash; fueled by the enthusiasm of retail traders anxious to &ldquo;stick it to the man.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Then we got the wild move in obscure (and arguably worthless) cryptocurrencies as investors plowed money into Dogecoin and other &ldquo;joke coins&rdquo; ahead of Elon Musk&rsquo;s appearance on Saturday Night Live.<\/p>\n<p>That was followed by a rush of money into the non-fungible token (NFT) market &ndash; where investors willingly paid millions of dollars to own blockchain-encrypted digital codes of pictures that are freely available to everyone.<\/p>\n<p>Now we&rsquo;re seeing money flood into Metaverse assets.<\/p>\n<p>It all seems surreal&hellip; and, there are new forehead shaped dents on my desktop that match the dents I put there back in 1999.<\/p>\n<p>Many folks who are trading the markets today weren&rsquo;t around back in 1999. But those who were remember how crazy things got.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Lots of &ldquo;dot-com&rdquo; companies traded for insane valuations as the experts explained that earnings didn&rsquo;t matter anymore. Companies were instead valued on the basis of &ldquo;page views&rdquo; and &ldquo;eyeballs.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Traders got rid of their &ldquo;old-economy&rdquo; stocks with their high dividends and low price-to-earnings (P\/E) multiples. Then, they used the proceeds to buy &ldquo;new-economy&rdquo; stocks with &ldquo;.com&rdquo; attached to the back of their names.<\/p>\n<p>That worked for a while &ndash; until the Fed started to shift from an easy money policy to a tight money policy. Then everything unraveled in 2000&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>The investments that had been the darlings of Wall Street in 1999 crashed and burned in 2000. And those old-economy stocks &ndash; with their big dividends and low P\/E ratios &ndash; doubled and tripled in value.<\/p>\n<p>I was wrong last year when I wrote 2021 would likely be the year of the safe trade.<\/p>\n<p>I was expecting the Fed to start tightening sooner. And that shift in policy would lead to a move out of risky assets and into safer investments.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly, that didn&rsquo;t happen. The Fed kept its easy money policy in place for most of 2021. So, the risky behavior we saw in 2020 got even riskier in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>But, the Fed changed course in November.<\/p>\n<p>It started its tapering process &ndash; which is the first step towards a tighter monetary policy. And the market is beginning to price in a series of interest rate increases over the next two years.<\/p>\n<p>To me, it looks like the pendulum is ready to swing from &ldquo;risk on&rdquo; to &ldquo;risk off.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>I was wrong last year&hellip; 2021 was not the year of the safe trade. But, 2022 sure looks like it will be.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" alt=\"signature\"><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\">Reader Mailbag<\/h2>\n<p>Did you buy into the &ldquo;craziness&rdquo; of cryptocurrencies and NFTs this year? If so, do you think this trend will continue well into 2022?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2021 was a crazy year for the markets&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19270\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19270"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19270"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19270"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19270"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}