{"id":19316,"date":"2022-01-14T07:30:39","date_gmt":"2022-01-14T12:30:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2022-01-14T07:30:39","modified_gmt":"2022-01-14T12:30:39","slug":"the-surprising-effect-of-too-much-stimulus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-surprising-effect-of-too-much-stimulus\/","title":{"rendered":"The Surprising Effect of Too Much Stimulus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Wednesday, a quote from St. Louis Fed president James Bullard revealed a stunning development in the high stakes game of monetary policy&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Monetary, fiscal aid over [the] pandemic may have been <em>too much.&rdquo;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here at <em>Market Minute,<\/em> we&rsquo;ve been talking about the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/washington-continues-to-miss-the-point\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fed&rsquo;s policy mistake throughout 2021<\/a> and this is exactly what we meant.<\/p>\n<p>Bullard must have seen recent data showing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 7% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) coming in at 9.8% &ndash; both at multi-decade highs.<\/p>\n<p>What&rsquo;s more troubling is that the spread between the two measures is now widening.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning producers are paying even more for materials and <em>faster<\/em> than what consumers are paying, which is a proxy for profit margins on a national level. And the wider the spread, the less they earn &ndash; and the more they try to pass down to us, the consumers.<\/p>\n<p>Surprisingly, there are now calls within the Fed to up the ante and hike rates <em>four time<\/em>s this year.<\/p>\n<p>As you may have realized, I&rsquo;m not a fan of the Fed. They&rsquo;ve strayed from their dual mandate of max employment AND controlling inflation.<\/p>\n<p>And they&rsquo;re just now starting to wake up.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s because they rely on stale data. And they also rely on economic <em>theory, <\/em>which is often unproven and misguided&hellip; especially while they&rsquo;re perched atop Washington&rsquo;s ivory towers.<\/p>\n<p>From that vantage point, they can&rsquo;t possibly see in real time what Lael Brainard admitted months too late at her Fed Vice Chair confirmation hearing today, &ldquo;Working people around the country are concerned about how far their paychecks will go.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Where was the concern from the Fed last year?<\/p>\n<p>Although it&rsquo;s a step in the right direction, the damage may have already been done.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed should seriously consider taking out the inflation part of their mandate and substituting it with &ldquo;keeping Wall Street happy.&rdquo; It would be more reflective of reality.<\/p>\n<p>With all this about-face from the Fed, it&rsquo;s no wonder the market is off to a rocky start in 2022 with tech leading the way down &ndash; the biggest benefactor of their ultra-loose monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>But not all stocks and sectors are getting hit&#8230; some are making all-time highs.<\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>This Metal Keeps Going Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Commodities picked up where they left off in 2021&hellip; rising 5.5% to start the year.<\/p>\n<p>The inflation trade continues to rage forward.<\/p>\n<p>And right now, metals have the spotlight.<\/p>\n<p>Especially copper (with the lowest inventories in almost 50 years), which has the entire market paying attention to it once again.<\/p>\n<p>To understand why, take a look at this chart of the dollar (DXY)&hellip;<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: block; height: auto; max-width: 700px; width: 100%; margin: 0px auto;\" width=\"700\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202201\/20220114-mm01_weh568.png\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202201\/20220114-mm01_weh568.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(Click here to expand image)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over the past year, both copper and the dollar prices have been rising, defying its traditional inverse relationship. But recent weakness in the dollar has now accelerated copper&rsquo;s rising trend.<\/p>\n<p>The relationship between the two is well-known: when the dollar rises, copper falls.<\/p>\n<p>But copper has been defying that relationship because when commodities are in a shortage, currencies just don&rsquo;t matter as much.<\/p>\n<p>However, the recent weakness in the dollar added some fuel to copper&rsquo;s uptrend. And in so doing, copper mining stocks like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reaped all the rewards.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 10px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/all-roads-lead-to-this-one-sector\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Copper miners are one of the commodity-related recommendations<\/a> we mentioned on November 9. And one of my favorite companies to play this trend is FCX.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday there was a flurry of &ldquo;unusual options activity&rdquo; on FCX with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#calloption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">call option<\/a> volumes surging.<\/p>\n<p>That kind of volume is institutional, meaning some big players are making bets on FCX &ndash; even with share prices at all-time highs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It could be because FCX has a great technical setup here to go even higher.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, its upcoming earnings report on January 26 could be a blowout.<\/p>\n<p>With copper prices raging forward, that feeds directly into their bottom line. And the way 2022 is shaping up, this year is all about stocks with earnings in the here-and-now. Value is outperforming everything else.<\/p>\n<p>The highest analyst target price for FCX right now is sitting at $55 a share.<\/p>\n<p>So, January 26 should be an interesting day for FCX &ndash; I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised if it hits this level.<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p>Eric Shamilov<br \/>\nAnalyst, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 align=\"center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Did you buy into copper when it was first recommended a few months ago? If so, are you expecting it to go higher based on the earnings report?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is a troubling move&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[13],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-eric-shamilov"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19316"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19316"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19316"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19316"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}