{"id":19533,"date":"2022-03-21T07:30:29","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T11:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=19533"},"modified":"2022-03-21T07:30:29","modified_gmt":"2022-03-21T11:30:29","slug":"the-smart-money-has-turned-cautious-on-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-smart-money-has-turned-cautious-on-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u201cSmart Money\u201d Has Turned Cautious on Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gold rallied to its highest point ever two weeks ago.<\/p>\n<p>The price of the shiny yellow metal topped $2,050 per ounce. And, in doing so, prompted cheers of &ldquo;it&rsquo;s a new bull market for gold&rdquo; from long-suffering gold bugs (like me) who&rsquo;ve waited for this day for a very long time.<\/p>\n<p>But while gold was rallying &ndash; and the public was finally turning <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bullish\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bullish<\/a> on the metal &ndash; the smart money was turning cautious&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Commercial traders are the &ldquo;smart money&rdquo; for gold.<\/p>\n<p>They&rsquo;re the merchants, miners, explorers, and bankers in the gold sector. They use futures contracts to hedge their exposure to the precious metal and protect themselves against adverse downside moves.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if a major gold producer wants to lock in a guaranteed price on its gold production, then it&rsquo;ll short gold in the futures market &ndash; thereby hedging its bet.<\/p>\n<p>Each week, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/MarketReports\/CommitmentsofTraders\/index.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report<\/a> shows the positions (long and short) of the largest commercial gold traders.<\/p>\n<p>The short position in gold is almost always a positive number &ndash; meaning that commercial traders are usually short gold futures contracts. That makes sense, since most commercial short positions are hedges against a future decline in price.<\/p>\n<p>When gold is at a relatively low level and commercial traders expect it to be higher in the near future, the COT short interest often drops to less than 200,000 contracts.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s what happened in late January, when gold dipped below $1,800 per ounce, and the commercial traders&rsquo; net short position fell to 165,000 contracts. That was the lowest net-short position in over a year.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The smart money wasn&rsquo;t too concerned about a further decline in the price of gold. They weren&rsquo;t looking to hedge their bets. They wanted to profit on an upside move.<\/p>\n<p>When gold is trading at a relatively high level and commercial traders expect the price to decrease, the COT net short interest often rises to more than 300,000 contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Last Friday&rsquo;s COT report showed that commercial traders were net short 352,000 contracts. That&rsquo;s the largest net-short position of the past year.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the smart money was this cautious was last June. Back then, gold was trading for $1,900 per ounce. It dropped $150 over the next four weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, when the commercial traders&rsquo; net-short position gets this high, the price of gold tends to suffer in the short term.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn&rsquo;t mean investors should sell all their gold, or that traders should build up short positions. The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish.<\/p>\n<p>But, folks should be careful chasing the price of gold higher in the current environment.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;ll likely have a chance to buy it a bit cheaper several weeks from now.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" alt=\"signature\"><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\">Reader Mailbag<\/h2>\n<p>What do you think about gold being used as a hedge against inflation?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This prompted cheers from gold bugs&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-19533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19533\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=19533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}