{"id":20006,"date":"2022-08-15T07:30:17","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T11:30:17","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2022-08-15T07:30:17","modified_gmt":"2022-08-15T11:30:17","slug":"is-there-a-bear-or-a-bull-in-our-crystal-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/is-there-a-bear-or-a-bull-in-our-crystal-ball\/","title":{"rendered":"Is There a Bear or a Bull in Our \u201cCrystal Ball\u201d?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The bear is gearing up for another attack, which could happen as early as this week.<\/p>\n<p>Let me explain&hellip;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-is-the-scariest-chart-in-the-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Almost two weeks ago<\/a>, I showed you the monthly chart of the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>The index had bounced all the way back up to its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) line &ndash; the dividing line between bull and bear markets.<\/p>\n<p>And I suggested that if the bear was still in charge, then stocks would be lower in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The market pressed higher anyway&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Then, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/watch-out-for-this-short-term-caution-sign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last week<\/a>, I showed you a chart of the bullish percent index for the S&amp;P 500 (BPSPX).<\/p>\n<p>It had just turned lower from an overbought condition, thereby generating a sell signal. And I suggested stocks would be lower in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Again, the market pressed higher anyway&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is up 124 points (roughly 3%) so far this month. It was up 110 points last week. So, it looks like the long-term and intermediate-term bearish signals are having a tough time of it.<\/p>\n<p>But remember, both of those signals tend to play out over weeks and months. So, we have to allow some &ldquo;wiggle room&rdquo; in the short term.<\/p>\n<p>Today, though, we&rsquo;re getting a bearish signal from one of our most accurate short-term indicators &ndash; our &ldquo;crystal ball.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Regular readers know we often look to Volatility Index (VIX) option prices for clues to the short-term direction of the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the price of VIX calls is much higher than the equivalent puts, the market is anticipating a higher VIX in the days ahead. And a higher VIX usually goes along with a lower stock market.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever VIX puts are trading for a much higher premium than the equivalent calls, the market is looking for a lower VIX. And, a lower VIX often occurs with a higher stock market.<\/p>\n<p>The trading signals from VIX options are so consistent and so reliable, that I refer to this indicator as a &ldquo;crystal ball.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Well, the crystal ball is now bearish for the short term.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>On Friday, the VIX traded at 19.30. The VIX August 17 $20 call options &ndash; which were $0.70 out of the money &ndash; were offered at $1.00. Meanwhile, the VIX August 17 $20 puts &ndash; which were $0.70 in the money &ndash; were offered for $0.30.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, traders were willing to pay more than 200% more for a VIX call option that was $0.70 out of the money than for a VIX put option that was $0.70 in the money. This tells us that traders who are making bets on the VIX expect the index to move higher over the next few days.<\/p>\n<p>This sentiment is even more evident if you go out a little further and compare the VIX August 25 $20 calls to the VIX August 25 $20 puts. The calls traded Friday offered at $2.50, while the puts were only $0.25. (I use my trading quote system to track these prices, but you can find them at <a href=\"http:\/\/quotes.freerealtime.com\/dl\/frt\/M?IM=quotes&amp;type=Quote&amp;symbol=VIX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FreeRealTime.com<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>VIX calls are far more expensive than the equivalent VIX put options.<\/p>\n<p>So, VIX option traders clearly expect the index to move sharply higher between now and the end of August. And a rising VIX (rising volatility) usually accompanies a falling stock market.<\/p>\n<p>So, if you&rsquo;re making bullish bets right now, be careful. We have bearish signals from long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term indicators.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn&rsquo;t mean the market can&rsquo;t press even higher from here. Heck, anything can happen&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>But it does suggest the risk\/reward potential in the stock market now favors the bear.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<table style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n<tr>\n<td><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" height=\"77\" alt=\"signature\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong> During a speech at an investment conference in March, I presented a trading strategy I thought could work well in a difficult stock market environment &ndash; because it doesn&rsquo;t depend on the overall direction of the market in order to be successful.<\/p>\n<p>In just the past two months, this strategy has generated returns of 10% in one week, 30% in two weeks, and 75% in one day. And, I&rsquo;m confident this strategy will be hugely profitable in the weeks and months ahead &ndash; regardless of what happens in the broad stock market.<\/p>\n<p>Folks paid up to $1,795 to attend that conference in March. But, I&rsquo;ll be presenting this strategy for FREE during a special presentation on Wednesday, August 17 at 8 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n<p>To sign up for the presentation, just <a href=\"https:\/\/signup.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT654768&#038;eid=MKT661319&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC150523\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click right here to reserve your spot<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Do you think we\u2019re heading towards a bull or bear market?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The risk\/reward potential in the stock market favors this\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20006\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20006"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20006"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20006"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20006"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}