{"id":20067,"date":"2022-08-31T07:30:59","date_gmt":"2022-08-31T11:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20067"},"modified":"2022-08-31T07:30:59","modified_gmt":"2022-08-31T11:30:59","slug":"this-upcoming-window-could-mean-reversal-in-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-upcoming-window-could-mean-reversal-in-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"This Upcoming Window Could Mean Reversal in the Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&rsquo;ve traded commodities, stocks, options, bonds, cryptocurrency, and forex over the last 13 years.<\/p>\n<p>I can trade so many markets at once because I rely primarily on technical analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Technical analysis helps me identify shifts in market psychology and sentiment using a price chart.<\/p>\n<p>And it offers traders a tremendous advantage when predicting the market&rsquo;s next move. (I wrote about that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-superpower-helps-you-predict-the-markets-next-move\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here earlier this month<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>Instead of having to do research on the fundamentals of just one market, all I do is look at a price chart.<\/p>\n<p>My approach is the same no matter which market I look at.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s because all markets go through the same shifts in sentiment &ndash; always moving between the two extremes of fear and greed.<\/p>\n<p>And there&rsquo;s one valuable lesson I&rsquo;ve learned after looking at tens of thousands of charts&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>Markets can have their own unique personalities.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the trading patterns in crude oil are very different from the ones in Apple, even though the same concepts of technical analysis apply to both markets.<\/p>\n<p>Today, we&rsquo;ll be looking at a fascinating pattern I&rsquo;ve identified in the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the dollar makes a significant change in direction, it almost always takes place around the new year.<\/p>\n<p>Check out the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) chart below&hellip;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text-center mb-4\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202208\/20220831-jmu-01_xhy584.png\" alt=\"Chart\" class=\"img-fluid\" \/><\/div>\n<p>I&rsquo;ve highlighted all the major turning points in the fortunes of the dollar going back to 2000.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, there&rsquo;s a common thread connecting almost every major top and bottom in the dollar&rsquo;s trading history.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, I&rsquo;ve identified a window that stretches between November and March when the dollar tends to stage dramatic reversals that last for a year or longer&hellip; putting in either a top or a bottom.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent example I&rsquo;ve found is when the dollar bottomed out in January 2021. Since then, the dollar has gone on to surge over 22.5%.<\/p>\n<p>The strength we&rsquo;ve seen over the last two years is quite impressive by any historical standard.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px\">Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>In fact, the last time the dollar surged this strongly was between early 2014 and December 2016&hellip; gaining about 28.5%.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar then topped out heading into 2017 and declined nearly 13% by February 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow is September, so we&rsquo;re quickly approaching the beginning of the window. Because of its extended level &ndash; and the window coming up fast &ndash; the dollar could be primed for a reversal lower.<\/p>\n<p>So, I&rsquo;ll be on high alert for a technical chart pattern that could signal a reversal is in the cards for 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Some of my favorite reversal patterns include the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/how-a-controversial-trade-made-me-a-1420-gain\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rising wedge<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-superpower-helps-you-predict-the-markets-next-move\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">iconic head and shoulders pattern<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If I spot one of those chart patterns within this special window, then I&rsquo;ll be sure to let you know.<\/p>\n<p>Buying the dollar was one of the best trades of last year.<\/p>\n<p>And it&rsquo;s possible that selling the dollar will be equally profitable in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Happy trading,<\/p>\n<p>Imre Gams<br \/>Analyst, <em>Market Minute <\/em><\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>What are your thoughts on the dollar\u2019s next move?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s one valuable lesson I\u2019ve learned after looking at thousands of charts\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[76],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-imre-gams"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20067\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20067"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20067"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20067"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20067"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}