{"id":20191,"date":"2022-10-12T07:30:24","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T11:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20191"},"modified":"2022-10-12T07:30:24","modified_gmt":"2022-10-12T11:30:24","slug":"stocks-wont-bottom-until-investors-show-some-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/stocks-wont-bottom-until-investors-show-some-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Won\u2019t Bottom Until Investors Show Some Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Despite already losing 24% year-to-date, the S&amp;P 500 could drop a lot further in this bear market.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s because traditional signs of panic-selling have been absent throughout the pullback in stocks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But panic is how stock market bottoms form. It signals investors have given up, and the remaining weak hands have sold their shares.<\/p>\n<p>Once the last bulls finally give up, the selling pressure subsides and a recovery in share prices can commence.<\/p>\n<p>But so far, this selloff is missing the concrete signs that investors have thrown in the towel on this bear market&hellip;<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center\">Follow the Fear<\/h2>\n<p>To monitor signs of panic, I refer to Wall Street&rsquo;s &ldquo;fear gauge&rdquo; &ndash; the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).<\/p>\n<p>The VIX measures how much traders expect the S&amp;P 500 to swing over the near-term. A reading below 20 suggests a perceived low-risk environment, while a reading above 20 is indicative of a period of higher volatility.<\/p>\n<p>As we&rsquo;ve seen this year, the size of daily price swings <em>increases<\/em> when stocks are <em>falling<\/em> &ndash; hence the VIX&rsquo;s fear gauge moniker.<\/p>\n<p>2022 has already seen eight days with a 3% or greater decline. Only the bear market of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic saw a higher number in the past 70 years.<\/p>\n<p>But expected volatility impacts the price of stock options, which is how traders actually spend their money.<\/p>\n<p>For example, higher volatility can make the cost of options soar &ndash; especially put options which gain value when stock prices fall.<\/p>\n<p>A spike in the VIX is a sign investors are <em>panic-buying protection<\/em> with put options&hellip;<\/p>\n<p><!--GREY BOX START--><\/p>\n<div class=\"card bg-light mb-4\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--GREY BOX END--><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center\">Not Enough Panic Yet<\/h2>\n<p>Although the VIX has moved higher this year, it hasn&rsquo;t moved to the extent that historically signals a bottom.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, no bear market in the past 25 years has ended without the VIX spiking to a reading of at least 45.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows the VIX index back to 1998. Notice the surge around the early 2000&rsquo;s &ldquo;dot-com&rdquo; bear market, 2008 financial crisis, and 2020&rsquo;s plunge&hellip;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text-center mb-4\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202210\/20221012-JMU-01_eqt341.png\" alt=\"Chart\" class=\"img-fluid\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Even with each successive new low in the stock market, the VIX hasn&rsquo;t been able to climb above the 36 level so far this year. That means there are two takeaways&hellip;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>This bear market still has room to run on the downside until we see more signs of panic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>This panic will result in great opportunities.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Remember that when the VIX spike does come, it could signal an end to this bear market and the opportunity to make money on a recovery.<\/p>\n<p>My colleague Jeff Clark had some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-three-good-habits-of-a-great-crisis-trader-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">words of wisdom this week<\/a>. He stated the best trades are often the toughest ones to make.<\/p>\n<p>When panic selling sets in, it&rsquo;ll feel like stocks can do nothing but plunge. The hardest thing to do will be getting back in the market.<\/p>\n<p>But after my trading experiences in the last three great bear markets, I can tell you it&rsquo;s always darkest just before the dawn.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards,<\/p>\n<p>Clint Brewer<br \/>Analyst, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong> What if I told you we don&rsquo;t have to wait for panic to set in to catch the biggest money-making opportunity in 14 years?<\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark says there&rsquo;s a way to make option-like gains <em>without<\/em> touching options during a fast-approaching 12-day window. If you position yourself before this phenomenon reaches the market, you could unleash gains of 492%, 5,590% &ndash; even as much as 11,780% with one simple action.<\/p>\n<p>Don&rsquo;t miss out. <a href=\"https:\/\/signup.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT678587&#038;eid=MKT680763&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC156997\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click right here to join Jeff tonight at 8 p.m. ET<\/a> as he goes live in Las Vegas to reveal his blasphemous strategy.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>When do you think the stock market will finally bottom?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No bear market in the last 25 years has ended without this\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[82],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-clint-brewer"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20191\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20191"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20191"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20191"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20191"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}