{"id":20321,"date":"2022-11-07T07:30:33","date_gmt":"2022-11-07T12:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20321"},"modified":"2022-11-07T07:30:33","modified_gmt":"2022-11-07T12:30:33","slug":"fed-day-made-a-surging-dollar-our-best-market-clue-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/fed-day-made-a-surging-dollar-our-best-market-clue-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cFed Day\u201d Made a Surging Dollar Our Best Market Clue Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Frustrating.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s how I&rsquo;d describe the Fed&rsquo;s latest performance&hellip; and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has certainly made the Fed an easy target for angry investors.<\/p>\n<p>You see, there are two parts to &ldquo;Fed Day.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The first part is at 2 p.m. ET &ndash; when the market finds out what the Fed&rsquo;s interest rate decision is.<\/p>\n<p>Now, I&rsquo;ll give the Fed some credit. Their 75-basis point hike was well telegraphed.<\/p>\n<p>The market has been expecting this interest rate hike for a while. If the interest rate increase was unexpected, then the action on Wednesday could&rsquo;ve been worse.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed also releases their latest policy statement at the same time as their interest-rate decision.<\/p>\n<p>This allows investors to see what (if anything) has changed from the prior statement.<\/p>\n<p>The policy statement is crucial because it can give the market insights as to what the Fed is going to do next.<\/p>\n<p>The initial reaction to the new statement was quite positive and the market rallied sharply for a few minutes&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s because the new statement said the Fed was considering the cumulative impact of its rate hikes to date.<\/p>\n<p>The market interpreted this to mean that the Fed would soon slow down the pace of future interest rate increases.<\/p>\n<p>But then&hellip; part two of the meeting began.<\/p>\n<p>At 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell answered questions from the financial media&hellip; it&rsquo;s typically where the fireworks will happen.<\/p>\n<p>A haphazard remark or a throwaway comment can wreak havoc on the markets.<\/p>\n<p>But what happened wasn&rsquo;t so benign as a careless off-the-cuff comment.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Powell pulled off the timeless bait-and-switch.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7; margin-bottom:20px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px; line-height:24px;\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px\">Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>He started off strongly by hinting that a slowdown in rate hikes could come as soon as the next meeting, or possibly the one after that.<\/p>\n<p>But then, he inexplicably switched tracks.<\/p>\n<p>Powell went on to say it was too premature to think about pausing hikes and that recent data points to interest rates having to go higher than previously expected.<\/p>\n<p>The market, predictably, sold off hard with the S&amp;P 500 closing 2.5% lower.<\/p>\n<p>I&rsquo;m not going to pile on with the Fed bashing that I&rsquo;m sure you&rsquo;ve been seeing in the news.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed&rsquo;s an easy target. What&rsquo;s not so easy is figuring out where we go from here.<\/p>\n<p>But I see one market that&rsquo;s giving the strongest clue &ndash; the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n<p>A side effect of the Fed&rsquo;s policy decisions has been a surging dollar, which has been a drag on the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>Check out this chart below to see what I mean. The red line represents the U.S. dollar, and the black line is the S&amp;P 500&hellip;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text-center mb-4\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202211\/20221107-jmu-01_xdf496.png\" alt=\"Chart\" class=\"img-fluid\" \/><\/div>\n<p>You&rsquo;ll notice how both markets have moved in opposite directions from one another since the start of 2022.<\/p>\n<p>And while it&rsquo;s no guarantee the stock market will bottom if the dollar reverses course&hellip; I do think that&rsquo;s one key variable we should be on the lookout for.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s hard to imagine the stock market having a sustained rally while the dollar continues to surge.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is that there&rsquo;s a very clear and obvious level of resistance that the dollar is heading toward.<\/p>\n<p>Check out this chart below of the U.S. dollar index (DXY)&hellip;<\/p>\n<div class=\"text-center mb-4\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202211\/20221107-jmu-02_xdf496.png\" alt=\"Chart\" class=\"img-fluid\" \/><\/div>\n<p>It appears the DXY is being pulled toward that 2002 high at 120.28 (lower red line).<\/p>\n<p>Multi-year highs often serve as strong resistance, and it should be very difficult for the dollar to break through that 120.28 level.<\/p>\n<p>I&rsquo;ve also included the 1985 high as a frame of reference (top red line).<\/p>\n<p>Back then, interest rates were close to 10%.<\/p>\n<p>The current Fed funds rate would have to more than double for the dollar to head that high.<\/p>\n<p>It remains to be seen if 120.28 will cap the dollar&rsquo;s incredible strength&hellip; but it&rsquo;s undeniably an incredibly important level for us to keep an eye on.<\/p>\n<p>I&rsquo;ll be looking to buy the dollar on dips as we trade closer to that level.<\/p>\n<p>Once we get there, I&rsquo;ll be on high alert for technical signs of a potential dollar reversal.<\/p>\n<p>Whether that means the stock market will also bottom out remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, I&rsquo;ll be sure to keep you updated through the market&rsquo;s various twists and turns.<\/p>\n<p>Happy trading,<\/p>\n<p>Imre Gams<br \/>Analyst, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align:center\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>What are your projections for the dollar\u2019s next move?<\/p>\n<p>Let us know your thoughts &ndash; and any questions you have &ndash; at <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s hard to imagine the stock market having a sustained rally while the dollar continues to surge\u2026 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[76],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-imre-gams"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20321\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20321"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20321"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20321"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20321"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}