{"id":20346,"date":"2022-11-16T07:30:57","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T12:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20346"},"modified":"2022-11-16T07:30:57","modified_gmt":"2022-11-16T12:30:57","slug":"this-bear-market-isnt-over-yet-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-bear-market-isnt-over-yet-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"This Bear Market Isn\u2019t Over Yet\u2026 Here\u2019s Why"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, investors let out a big sigh of relief…<\/p>\n

The increase in October’s consumer price index (CPI) was less <\/em>than expected – even though it rose 7.7% compared to last year’s levels.<\/p>\n

That fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve would ease its aggressive rate-hiking campaign and end this bear market.<\/p>\n

The report sent stocks soaring with one-day, record-breaking gains the day it was released.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500’s 5.5% jump was the strongest in more than two years. Apple alone added nearly $191 billion in market value in a single day (the most ever by a company in the U.S.).<\/p>\n

But despite the jubilation, one key feature was missing: signs of panic-buying<\/em> by institutional investors.<\/p>\n

That’s the confirmation signal needed to put this bear market in hibernation.<\/p>\n

The absence of the smart money says a lot about the stock market’s biggest players. And their lack of confirmation means the most important buyers are still sitting on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

Tracking the Stock Market’s 800-Pound Gorilla<\/h2>\n

Institutions are still the 800-pound gorilla when it comes to moving the stock market. That’s because they make up 82% of trading volume on U.S. exchanges.<\/p>\n

And their confirmation signal – driven by panic-buying on a big rally day – has historically marked an end to even the most drawn out and severe bear markets.<\/p>\n

So when they don’t show up on big rally days, you should be suspicious.<\/p>\n

After all, during the 2000-2002 “dot-com” bust, the Nasdaq saw 14 single-day rallies of 6% or more. And each time, the stock market went on to make a new low.<\/p>\n

That’s why confirmation to kick off a new bull market is so important… showing the kind of hand-over-fist buying as institutional investors rush to get in.<\/p>\n

And it’s why I believe stocks won’t find a bottom until the smart money decides it’s time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Confirming a New Bull<\/h2>\n

You can confirm the arrival of the next bull market by tapping into gauges of buying pressure.<\/p>\n

I do that by measuring the amount of volume in stocks that are going up on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the volume in stocks moving lower.<\/p>\n

Below is a chart of that indicator in action, with a surge in buying pressure (circle) less than two weeks after the historic 2009 lows exiting the Global Financial Crisis…<\/p>\n

\"Chart\"<\/div>\n

This ratio nearly hit 26, which clearly stands out from other readings in the period.<\/p>\n

And here’s that same ratio just two days after stocks found the bottom in 2018’s bear market – this time hitting 29…<\/p>\n

\"Chart\"<\/div>\n

Last Thursday – when the S&P 500 gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 7% – this ratio of advancing-to-declining volume only hit 6.<\/p>\n

That’s not a bad figure, but it’s certainly nowhere near the levels that have marked the end of past bear markets.<\/p>\n

This shows the smart money is not yet convinced the worst is behind us.<\/p>\n

But that shouldn’t stop you from taking advantage of the trading opportunities this market has to offer.<\/p>\n

If you’re tired of waiting decades to collect stock market returns… Jeff has found a way to make consistent profits with just one simple low-cost weekly trade.<\/p>\n

He calls these trades “Retirement Codes,” because you could potentially make 79 years of normal market gains in as little as two days.<\/p>\n

For more details, click right here<\/a> to watch Jeff’s briefing on his latest “Retirement Code” for this month.<\/p>\n

Best regards,<\/p>\n

Clint Brewer
Analyst, Market Minute <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Have you been sitting out on the sidelines during this market action, or have you been trying to catch profitable moves?<\/p>\n

Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bear\u2019s not over until institutions start panic-buying\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[82],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-clint-brewer"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20346\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20346"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20346"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20346"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20346"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}