{"id":20374,"date":"2022-11-24T07:30:20","date_gmt":"2022-11-24T12:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20374"},"modified":"2022-11-24T07:30:20","modified_gmt":"2022-11-24T12:30:20","slug":"beware-the-complacency-of-turkeys-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/beware-the-complacency-of-turkeys-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware the Complacency of Turkeys"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, I discovered a turkey carcass on the hillside behind my house…<\/p>\n

It seems coyotes celebrate Thanksgiving too.<\/p>\n

On the previous morning, I stood on my porch and watched a flock of wild turkeys scratching around my backyard, hunting for whatever it is that turkeys hunt for.<\/p>\n

It seemed odd to me that these birds felt so comfortable in my presence.<\/p>\n

Didn’t they know Thanksgiving was coming up? Didn’t they know I was planning to eat a relative of theirs? Didn’t they fear that they could end up on the menu?<\/p>\n

Apparently not.<\/p>\n

I ventured off the porch and walked out among the feathered creatures. They hardly noticed me.<\/p>\n

If I got within a few feet of any of them, the flock would saunter away in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n

But rather than cackling, flapping their wings, and scattering… they just casually strolled away – putting a little extra distance between us.<\/p>\n

“Pretty darned relaxed,” I thought – for turkeys to be so fearless and complacent this close to Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n

They reminded me of investors…<\/p>\n

On Monday, the Volatility Index (VIX) – the best tool for measuring fear in the marketplace – traded at 23.<\/p>\n

That’s the lowest it’s been in about three months.<\/p>\n

And this is happening despite a lackluster earnings season, rising interest rates, the global economy tumbling headfirst into a recession, and the massive fraud unraveling the cryptocurrency market.<\/p>\n

And just like the frolicking turkeys in my backyard, investors are relaxed – maybe too relaxed.<\/p>\n

Of course, that’s what happens when the stock market bounces hard for a few weeks.<\/p>\n

That’s what happens when the financial television talking heads turn universally bullish. And when nearly everyone expects Santa to show up.<\/p>\n

Investors, like country club turkeys, stop worrying about the potential dangers of their environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Lately, we’ve been frequently warning about the danger of complacency. But when stocks are running higher, no one really wants to hear that sort of thing.<\/p>\n

It’s kind of like the grandmother who hurries through the sand to tell all the teenagers at the beach party to wear sunscreen…<\/p>\n

The teenagers nod politely and thank her for the advice, but then they roll their eyes once she moves on.<\/p>\n

Of course, at the end of the day, someone always gets burned.<\/p>\n

Periods of low volatility are ALWAYS followed by periods of high volatility (and vice versa).<\/p>\n

Right about the time you feel the most comfortable… well… that’s probably about the time where you have the most risk.<\/p>\n

The talking heads in the financial media are suggesting there’s nothing to worry about.<\/p>\n

They’re relaxed… comfortable… and completely unprepared for any sort of downside action.<\/p>\n

But at this point, it may make more sense to cackle, flap our wings wildly, and scatter in all directions.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, we might end up as coyote food.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n\n\n
\"signature\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

Jeff Clark<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It seems coyotes celebrate Thanksgiving too\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20374\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20374"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20374"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20374"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20374"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}