{"id":20830,"date":"2023-04-24T07:30:24","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T11:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=20830"},"modified":"2023-04-24T07:30:24","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T11:30:24","slug":"why-bonds-are-set-up-for-an-explosive-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/why-bonds-are-set-up-for-an-explosive-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bonds Are Set Up for an Explosive Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Treasury traders have had one heck of a time lately&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of the banking failures we saw in early March, bonds and their yields have moved in a way I haven&rsquo;t seen since the pandemic collapse in early 2020.<\/p>\n<p>In the span of 10 trading days, U.S. 2-year treasury yields dropped by an astonishing 27%.<\/p>\n<p>Because a bond&rsquo;s yield moves inversely to its price, this has been welcome news to traders who went long on treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>But as the banking crisis stabilized, bonds went back to a more normal trading pattern.<\/p>\n<p>Since March 13, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has traded in a tight 5% range.<\/p>\n<p>TLT is an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#etf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>exchange-traded fund (ETF)<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;that tracks the investment results of a basket of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years.<\/p>\n<p>(If you&rsquo;d like to learn more about this ETF, just click the link&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/products\/239454\/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>My technical analysis of TLT suggests that this tight trading range might soon come to an end.<\/p>\n<p>This means we will see an explosive breakout in bonds, which will also mean declining bond yields.<\/p>\n<p>Let&rsquo;s look at a chart of TLT together so you can see what I mean&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><!--IMG SNIP--><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-fluid\" alt=\"Image\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jeffclarktrader.com\/JMU\/images\/202304\/20230424-JMU-01_mrt637.png\"><\/p>\n<p>The key feature of this price chart is the pattern I&rsquo;ve drawn using the blue trendlines.<\/p>\n<p>This kind of chart setup belongs to a family of patterns known as <em>consolidations<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Consolidations occur when there&rsquo;s a relatively equal balance between buyers and sellers in the market. This is why this kind of pattern trades sideways in a range.<\/p>\n<p><!--GRAY BOX START--><\/p>\n<div class=\"card bg-light mb-4\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"font-size: 18px;\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--GRAY BOX END--><\/p>\n<p>Although they can go on for quite some time, eventually consolidations must break out in one direction or the other.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the longer a consolidation takes to resolve, the fiercer the ensuing breakout.<\/p>\n<p>Think of it like steam building inside a kettle. Eventually, the water inside the kettle will reach a boil. When that happens, all that trapped steam must be released.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s the same with markets.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s what makes the current pattern in TLT so exciting. TLT has been stuck in this consolidating pattern since December 2022.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s quite a long time for the steam to build.<\/p>\n<p>And because the price action leading into the consolidating pattern was bullish, the odds favour an upside breakout.<\/p>\n<p>If prices can break out of the upper blue trendline, then I&rsquo;ll be looking for a move higher.<\/p>\n<p>My initial target in TLT coincides with the August 2022 high of $120.<\/p>\n<p>Happy trading,<\/p>\n<p>Imre Gams<br \/>Analyst, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!-- MAILBAG BEGIN --><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; margin-bottom:20px; margin-top:0px; border-bottom: 1px solid #CCCCCC\">\n<h2 style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Arial; font-size: 25px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: -1px;text-transform:uppercase;\">READER MAILBAG<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>In today&rsquo;s mailbag, a <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT717909&#038;eid=MKT729645&#038;step=start&#038;plcid=PLC177096\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Currency Trader<\/em><\/a> member thanks Imre for his video tutorials&hellip;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px;padding-left: 15px;\">\n<p>Hi Imre, I really appreciate your videos using TradingView to walk us through examples of how things like Fibonacci retracement can be used to find the resistance and support levels.<\/p>\n<p>It adds tremendous confidence to your recommendations and is also super fun to learn new things. Thank you, and please keep your videos coming!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">&ndash; <strong>Michelle A.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\"><strong>feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the wake of the banking failures we saw in early March, bonds and their yields have moved in a way I haven\u2019t seen since the pandemic collapse in early 2020\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[76],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-20830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-imre-gams"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20830\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20830"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=20830"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=20830"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=20830"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=20830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}