{"id":21278,"date":"2023-10-12T07:30:09","date_gmt":"2023-10-12T11:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=21278"},"modified":"2023-10-12T07:30:09","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T11:30:09","slug":"erratic-behavior-and-false-breakouts-the-widow-maker-is-ready-to-strike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/erratic-behavior-and-false-breakouts-the-widow-maker-is-ready-to-strike\/","title":{"rendered":"Erratic Behavior and False Breakouts: The Widow Maker Is Ready to Strike"},"content":{"rendered":"

The widow maker is at it again.<\/p>\n

Natural gas is known to commodity traders as the “widow maker,” because of how difficult it is to trade.<\/p>\n

The price is often erratic. It doesn’t seem to conform to any of the standard rules of technical analysis. It often trades irrationally – rallying when the fundamentals argue for a decline, and vice versa.<\/p>\n

As a result, most folks lose money trying to trade natural gas. Hence, the widow maker.<\/p>\n

And yet, some of us just can’t help ourselves.<\/p>\n

We saunter into the trading pits determined to solve the natural gas puzzle. Because, when you get it right, the payoff can be quite large.<\/p>\n

For example, the last time we looked at natural gas was back in July<\/a>. The widow maker was trading at about $2.60. The price appeared to be breaking out of a four-month-long trading range. And I argued that natural gas could hit $5 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Shortly afterward, as if to prove its reputation for erratic behavior, the price of natural gas fell back inside its trading range. The breakout was false.<\/p>\n

Natural gas has spent the past several weeks chopping back and forth – frustrating bulls and bears alike.<\/p>\n

Last week, though, the price of natural gas quietly exploded higher. I write “quietly” because it seems as though no one has noticed. The price spiked by more than 20%. But, none of the financial television talking heads have said anything about it yet.<\/p>\n

Here’s the updated chart…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Image\"<\/p>\n

The widow maker has clearly broken out of its consolidation pattern (lower dotted blue lines).<\/p>\n

Natural gas is trading at its highest price since mid-January. The next real resistance level is all the way up at $5. Granted, it’s not going to be a straight shot higher. This is the widow maker after all.<\/p>\n

But, after being stuck in a trading range for seven months, there’s a lot of energy built up in this chart.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

It sure looks like that energy will result in a strong rally to me.<\/p>\n

So, I’m sticking to my year-end target of $5 for natural gas.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

READER MAILBAG<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n

Are you trading natural gas?<\/p>\n

Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The widow maker is at it again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-21278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21278\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21278"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=21278"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=21278"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=21278"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=21278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}