{"id":22187,"date":"2024-10-01T07:30:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=22187"},"modified":"2024-10-01T07:30:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:30:22","slug":"this-contrarian-indicator-could-be-warning-of-a-correction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-contrarian-indicator-could-be-warning-of-a-correction\/","title":{"rendered":"This Contrarian Indicator Could Be Warning of a Correction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One of my favorite trading indicators has come back to life.<\/p>\n<p>The CBOE Put\/Call (CPC) ratio measures investor sentiment. It takes the total volume of put options traded on a given day and divides it by the total number of call options.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the ratio spikes above 1.20, it indicates traders are rushing to buy put options and make bearish bets. That&rsquo;s bullish from a contrarian standpoint.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>When the ratio drops below 0.80, traders are aggressively buying call options and betting on an upside move. That&rsquo;s ultimately bearish.<\/p>\n<p>The CPC used to be a highly reliable indicator. We mentioned it often here in <em>Market Minute<\/em>. And it had an excellent track record &ndash; until about one year ago.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s when 0DTE (zero days to expiration) option trading became popular.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Traders started gambling on the intraday direction of the stock market. They bought short-dated puts and calls that expired on the same day they bought them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That action wasn&rsquo;t indicative of traders&rsquo; bullish or bearish sentiment of the market. Rather, it was a gamble on where traders thought the major stock market indexes would finish the day.<\/p>\n<p>That activity skewed the option volumes, rendering the CPC all but useless.<\/p>\n<p>Now, though, the market has absorbed the allure of intraday gambling. And the CPC is starting to trigger reliable signals again.<\/p>\n<p>For example, in early August &ndash; after the S&amp;P 500 had fallen 9%, and it looked like the world was ending &ndash; the CPC hit 1.28. That coincided with a bottom in the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>In late August, after the S&amp;P 500 had rallied all the way back to 5650, the CPC hit 0.74. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 250 points just a few days later.<\/p>\n<p>So, it&rsquo;s probably worth noting the CPC hit 0.76 last Wednesday. It was 0.79 on Thursday.<\/p>\n<table bgcolor=\"#eeeeee\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: 1px solid #D7D7D7;margin-bottom:20px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px;padding-top: 15px;font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px;line-height:24px\">\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;font-size: 18px\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;margin-top: 0px\">Have you checked out Jeff&#8217;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Traders were jumping over themselves to buy call options last week. That sent the CPC below the 0.80 level that indicates high bullish sentiment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This condition often leads to at least a short-term decline in the broad stock market.<\/p>\n<p>And given the other warning signs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-stock-market-crystal-ball-just-turned-bearish\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I wrote about last week<\/a>, the CPC might be indicating an intermediate-term correction is headed our way.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;ll see how this plays out in the days ahead. But given the previous success of the CPC indicator, I wouldn&rsquo;t bet against it.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px;line-height:24px;margin-bottom: 20px\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Signature\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px;width:100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark <br \/>\nEditor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This condition often leads to at least a short-term decline in the broad stock market. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-22187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22187"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=22187"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=22187"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=22187"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=22187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}