{"id":23735,"date":"2025-04-10T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=23735"},"modified":"2025-08-22T08:16:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T12:16:13","slug":"the-market-will-be-up-10-three-months-from-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-market-will-be-up-10-three-months-from-now\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market Will Be Up 10% Three Months From Now"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Managing Editor\u2019s Note: <\/strong>Today, we\u2019re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly Thursday feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry \u2013 from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

And he\u2019s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop, <\/em>and Inside TradeSmith. <\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Mike\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Market Will Be Up 10% Three Months From Now<\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Market volatility is nearly off the chart\u2026 and that\u2019s great news!<\/p>\n

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX)<\/strong> the stock market\u2019s \u201cfear gauge,\u201d has gone ballistic in recent days. That\u2019s not surprising given the tariff-trauma <\/em>induced stock market meltdown.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the thing… extreme highs in the VIX are often reliable buy signals for stocks.<\/p>\n

Granted, I wrote in Market Minute<\/em> last week<\/a> that \u201cwhen volatility is exhausted so is the selling.\u201d And historically it has been a tried-and-true indicator that stocks should soon find a bottom.<\/p>\n

But in this case, the signal was a bit too early.<\/p>\n

The VIX had made a lower high at the same time the S&P 500 made a new low. That\u2019s often an early indicator of stocks finding a low. As it turns out, the VIX wasn\u2019t done rising, and it spiked to new highs above 60 on Monday.<\/p>\n

But the good news is, that doesn\u2019t cancel out the VIX buy signal indicator. In fact, the spike to new highs makes it more likely<\/u><\/em> stocks will reach a bottom soon.<\/p>\n

Take a look:<\/p>\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n

In the chart above you can see the history of this indicator with the S&P 500 at the top of the chart, and the VIX (blue line) at the bottom. Historically, when the VIX has spiked to 45 or higher, which it did this week, it\u2019s a sure-fire sign of excessive investor pessimism.<\/p>\n

This VIX buy signal for stocks has flashed 17 times since 1987. This week was the 18th signal.<\/p>\n

The question is, what happens to stocks historically after the VIX spikes above 45?<\/p>\n