{"id":24003,"date":"2025-05-16T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=24003"},"modified":"2025-08-14T10:58:37","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T14:58:37","slug":"the-next-bear-swipe-could-start-any-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-next-bear-swipe-could-start-any-day\/","title":{"rendered":"The Next Bear Swipe Could Start Any Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The recent stock market rally has done what every bear market rally is supposed to do&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>It punished bearish traders who held short positions too long, and it coaxed reluctant bulls back into the market for fear of missing out &ndash; just in time for the bear to take another swipe.<\/p>\n<p>It looks like that &ldquo;swipe&rdquo; could start any day.<\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;ve already published several articles this week about how the stock market is setting up for a decline.&nbsp; And, at the risk of provoking even more nasty feedback from bullish readers, please allow me to throw another log on the bearish fire.<\/p>\n<p>Look at this chart of the CBOE Put\/Call ratio (CPC)&hellip;<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"312\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/5.16.25-JMU.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-914877\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/5.16.25-JMU.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/5.16.25-JMU-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>The CBOE Put\/Call (CPC) ratio measures investor sentiment (a contrary indicator) by taking the total volume of put options traded on a given day and dividing it by the total number of call options.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the ratio spikes above 1.20, it indicates traders are rushing to buy put options and make bearish bets &ndash; which is bullish from a contrarian standpoint. When the ratio drops below 0.80, traders are aggressively buying call options and betting on an upside move &ndash; which is ultimately bearish.<\/p>\n<p>For example, last month &ndash; after the S&amp;P 500 had fallen 20%, and it looked like the world was ending &ndash; the CPC hit 1.22. That coincided with a short-term bottom in the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>In mid-February, as the S&amp;P was posting an all-time high above 6100, the CPC hit 0.70. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1100 points over the next six weeks.<\/p>\n<p>So, it&rsquo;s probably worth noting the CPC closed at 0.70 on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, despite the S&amp;P 500 trading 1000 points above last month&rsquo;s low, and despite all of the overbought conditions we&rsquo;ve shared with you in <em>Market Minute<\/em> this week, traders were still jumping over themselves to buy call options.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s rare for the stock market to sustain any sort of rally when the CPC is this low. So, while investors might be breathing a sigh of relief that the market has rallied back from the tariff trade war decline, traders ought to be looking over their shoulders right here.<\/p>\n<p>The CPC indicator is suggesting there&rsquo;s at least a short-term decline in front of us &ndash; if not something even more severe.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.jeffclarktrader.com\/global\/signatures\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" alt=\"Signature\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px;width:100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<br>\nEditor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong>&nbsp;This market environment is the perfect playing field for&nbsp;my <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT836333&amp;eid=MKT838442&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC228495\">newly released Bill Payer strategy<\/a>&hellip; Because even when the markets are chaotic and volatile, you can use what I believe is the single best income-producing strategy to make upward of $400&hellip; in just one week.<\/p>\n<p>And this isn&rsquo;t a cherry-picked result. I&rsquo;ll show you how to do it over and over again with one straightforward investment vehicle.<\/p>\n<p>To check out how I put this strategy to the test by paying for an entire day&rsquo;s worth of purchases around Miami,&nbsp;go <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT836333&amp;eid=MKT838442&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC228495\">right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"card card-body bg-light mb-4 mt-4\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Have you checked out Jeff&rsquo;s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just <a href=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The CPC indicator is suggesting there\u2019s at least a short-term decline in front of us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-24003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24003"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24836,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24003\/revisions\/24836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24003"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=24003"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=24003"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=24003"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=24003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}