{"id":24456,"date":"2025-07-09T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=24456"},"modified":"2025-07-16T15:23:54","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T19:23:54","slug":"is-it-time-to-buy-the-buck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/is-it-time-to-buy-the-buck\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it Time to Buy the Buck?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was wrong about the dollar.<\/p>\n

A few months ago, I told readers<\/a> the decline in the US dollar was just about over. The buck was oversold. Technical conditions were stretched quite far to the downside. It seemed to me there wasn\u2019t a lot of fuel left to push the dollar much lower.<\/p>\n

So, for folks who had bet on the dollar falling in January based on the bearish setup I wrote about back then, I suggested taking profits on that trade.<\/p>\n

Since then, the U.S. dollar index has fallen another 6%. It closed recently at its lowest level in over three years. The \u201cshort-the-buck\u201d trade would have been even more profitable.<\/p>\n

We left some money on the table.<\/p>\n

But, at least I didn\u2019t recommend buying the dollar \u2013 which would be a losing position right now. I was tempted \u2013 to be sure. The buck was oversold. Conditions were stretched. And, I didn\u2019t think there was much downside left.<\/p>\n

But, the dollar\u2019s setup in March lacked one of the key conditions I look for before making a long trade\u2026<\/p>\n

Confirming the Move<\/h2>\n

It lacked positive divergence. The various momentum indicators I follow were moving lower right along with the dollar, which\u00a0confirmed\u00a0<\/em>the decline.<\/p>\n

And, while any further downside seemed limited to me, the lack of positive divergence suggested the dollar wasn\u2019t ready to reverse right away.<\/p>\n

Today, though, we have a different story. Look at this updated chart of the dollar index\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n

As the dollar index has been making lower lows over the past three months, the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart have been making higher lows.<\/p>\n

This sort of “positive divergence” is often an early warning sign of a reversal to the upside.<\/p>\n

The dollar is oversold – just as it was in March. The moving averages are extended far away from each other – also just like March. This time, though, we now have positive divergence in place as well.<\/p>\n

It sure looks to me like the dollar index is forming at least a short-term bottom.<\/p>\n

So, while I didn’t recommend buying the buck in March, the current setup looks like that could be a good trade for aggressive traders.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark
\nEditor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just go here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The current setup in the U.S. dollar could be a good trade for aggressive traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-24456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24456"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24558,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24456\/revisions\/24558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24456"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=24456"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=24456"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=24456"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=24456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}