{"id":25520,"date":"2025-10-16T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=25520"},"modified":"2025-10-15T13:54:18","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T17:54:18","slug":"meltdown-or-meltup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/meltdown-or-meltup\/","title":{"rendered":"Meltdown\u2026 or Meltup?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Investors got a jolt last Friday as markets careened lower in a selling stampede. This includes both stocks and cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<p>The catalyst was renewed trade war turmoil as the White House threatened additional 100% tariffs on China along with technology export restrictions.<\/p>\n<p>That news didn&rsquo;t sit well with stocks, especially the high-beta variety (think tech, telecom, AI-related, etc.).<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the S&amp;P 500 lost 2.7%, the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.5%, and the Magnificent 7 plunged nearly 4%.<\/p>\n<p>Averaging it out, let&rsquo;s call it a -3% down day. The first single-day loss of this magnitude since &ndash; <em>you guessed it<\/em> &ndash; April&rsquo;s tariff turmoil.<\/p>\n<p>Now, where we go from here is the trillion-dollar question&hellip;<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"527\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/10.16.25-jmu.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-916796\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/10.16.25-jmu.png 552w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/10.16.25-jmu-300x286.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/10.16.25-jmu-413x394.png 413w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/10.16.25-jmu-503x480.png 503w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p>As you can see above, the S&amp;P 500 is still about 10% above its 200-day moving average line. Most other indexes are similarly stretched to the upside.<\/p>\n<p>Worse, as you can see in the lower panel of the chart above, the share of S&amp;P component stocks above their own 50-day moving average line plunged below 40%. That prolongs an ominous downtrend that began in July.<\/p>\n<p>Most of the time, when this key breadth indicator falls below the 50% mark, it ends up making a round-trip down to 20% or less before stocks are truly oversold.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Bottom line<\/em><\/strong>: As Jeff and I have been pointing out for a while now, the stock market reached extremely overbought levels and is overdue for a pullback. This could be just the start, but the clock is ticking. TradeSmith seasonality tools indicate an uptrend should begin soon. The question is, does the typical year-end rally start now, or from much lower levels?<\/p>\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.exct.tradesmith.com\/lib\/fe8213727c6200757c\/m\/1\/34a6d15e-eaf1-4c10-bf47-a783782acc4a.png\" alt=\"Signature\" width=\"200\" style=\"max-width:200px;width:100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Mike Burnick<br>\nContributing Editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Does the typical year-end rally start now, or from much lower levels?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-25520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25520"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25532,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25520\/revisions\/25532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25520"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=25520"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=25520"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=25520"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=25520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}