At one podium stood Michael Jensen, a rising star from the University of Rochester. He carried the weight of a near-unanimous academic consensus: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It claimed markets were unbeatable. What looked like investor outperformance was nothing more than statistical noise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other side was one of the world\u2019s most successful investors, Warren Buffett. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nineteen years earlier, he\u2019d taken over a failing New England textile mill called Berkshire Hathaway. By applying Graham and Dodd\u2019s principles, he transformed it into one of the world\u2019s most successful investment firms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jensen spoke first. He cited studies showing that, taken as a whole, the pros weren\u2019t beating the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He compared it with a national coin-flipping contest. If 225 million people flipped coins, he argued, a few would rack up 20 wins in a row. No skill required \u2014 just the law of large numbers at work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then it was Buffett\u2019s turn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cLet\u2019s accept Professor Jensen\u2019s coin-flipping contest,\u201d he began. He walked through the same logic: millions flipping coins, losers dropping out, a tiny remnant surviving 20 rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then he reframed the question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBut what if those survivors all came from the same place?\u201d He let the pause hang\u2026 \u201cGraham-and-Doddsville.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Buffett wasn\u2019t talking about a place \u2013 but a school of thought. He showed slides of nine funds, each run by Graham disciples, all with years of outperformance. You can dismiss one streak among this group as chance\u2026 but not nine<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For decades, academics like Jensen told investors that beating the market was impossible. At TradeSmith, we set out to prove otherwise \u2014 not with luck, but with discipline, data, and world-class software tools. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Our latest breakthrough takes the core math behind the EMH and turns it on its head \u2014 creating a system with a real, lasting edge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In backtests, it delivered an average annual return of 374% over five years \u2014 through the Covid Pandemic, the 2022 crash, the 2025 tariff shock, two wars, and wild swings in interest rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And it\u2019s powered by something investors in 1984 could only imagine in science fiction: Artificial Intelligence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n You\u2019re probably familiar with ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot. They\u2019re called large language models because they\u2019re trained on massive datasets of words. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Think of our AI-powered trading system as a \u201clarge\u202fnumbers\u202fmodel.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n We trained it on more than 100 billion stock market data points \u2013 including odd jumps and volatility spikes. It learns patterns hidden in the noise, then projects where stocks are likely to move next. <\/p>\n\n\n\n You may be wondering how accurate these projections are. We monitor it daily and see surprisingly consistent results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Some stocks hit their price projection more than 90% of the time. That covers more than 700,000 projections a month since we introduced the model in 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And we consistently see 70% accuracy or higher. That\u2019s even more impressive than residents of \u201cGraham-and-Doddsville.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n For instance, on July 27, 2023, our model predicted Opendoor (OPEN<\/a>) would soon hit $4.87 a share. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Twenty-four hours later, the stock hit that price. My team booked a 9.4% gain. That\u2019s like growing your money 34 times in a year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And you could have boosted that gain to 244% in just 24 hours with a special kind of trade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Another example is restaurant chain Wingstop (WING<\/a>). On June 4, our AI projected a 74% chance of it rising over the next 21 days to hit $384.87. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Wingstop reached that price within 24 hours. You could have booked a 3.6% gain\u2026 and boosted it to 156%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Or take Tesla (TSLA<\/a>). In May, our model projected it would hit $302.89 in 21 trading days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It reached that price even faster than expected. We booked a 5.2% gain in 24 hours, which you could have boosted to 310%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n These gains are great. But my team and I wanted to make this technology even more accessible to everyday investors and even more powerful. That\u2019s where our EMH math breakthrough comes in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It turns the core mathematical concepts of EMH against itself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The math is called Mean Variance Optimization (MVO). It\u2019s mostly used to minimize risk while holding a broad, market-based portfolio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But our research team used the same formula not to spread bets, but to concentrate capital into a handful of stocks with the highest potential payoff. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The chart below shows what happens when we applied our MVO model to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n The blue line shows $10,000 invested in QQQ since January 2018. The orange line shows $10,000 put into the top five QQQ stocks selected by our MVO model on the same date. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The MVO-selected five stocks outperformed the QQQ by four-to-one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n But our team is never satisfied. And impressive as this was, it still wasn\u2019t good enough. We then found a way to apply our MVO model to the stock projections our AI makes. The result is our AI Super Portfolio<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As I mentioned, it returned 374% a year on average in a five-year back test. But that\u2019s just an average. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Last year, it returned 602%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s more than 30x the return you\u2019d have gotten holding the S&P 500 stocks for the year. And it\u2019s more than 3x the return of Nvidia (NVDA<\/a>) over the same time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Even better, our system is easy to follow. You hold the five top stocks based on our AI\u2019s projections. Then you rotate into a new set of five stocks when the AI says it\u2019s time to sell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s it\u2026 there\u2019s nothing more to it. It takes no more than a few minutes, on average, once a week, to maintain. <\/p>\n\n\n\nSurprisingly Consistent Results<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A Simple Portfolio with Superhuman Results<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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