{"id":26039,"date":"2026-01-06T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26039"},"modified":"2026-01-05T15:41:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-05T20:41:44","slug":"unlocking-our-first-delta-direct-live-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/unlocking-our-first-delta-direct-live-of-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Unlocking Our First Delta Direct Live of 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For today&rsquo;s <em>Market Minute, <\/em>I figured we would do something a little different&hellip;<\/p>\n<p>I decided to unlock part of my first weekly live call of 2026. This is a benefit my <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/?cid=MKT850897&amp;eid=MKT857971&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC239909\"><em>Delta Report<\/em> subscribers<\/a> have access to every Monday at 9am ET.<\/p>\n<p>I go through what I see setting up in the markets, trade ideas, sectors I expect to do well (or poorly) and more in about 10 minutes.<\/p>\n<p>Check it out right here, or feel free to read the transcript below instead.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative; width: 100%; height: 0; padding-bottom: 56.25%;\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/marketwise.zoom.us\/clips\/embed\/i-y0r18WRJm6bNFMJLZcVA\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" style=\"position: absolute; width: 100%; height: 100%; top: 0; left: 0;\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>Hi folks, Jeff Clark here. Welcome back to the first <em>Delta Direct<\/em> live recording of 2026. Happy New Year. Today is the last day of the seasonally bullish period that includes the last five trading days of 2025 and the first two trading days of 2026, also known as the Santa Claus Rally period. And so far, Santa is a no-show.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z1jdxtg\"} -->\n<p>The S&amp;P 500, I think, started off this period at 6,915, and we are considerably below that. Although, who knows? Today\u2019s a new day. The events over the weekend are being interpreted by the market, at least, as being quite bullish, and the S&amp;P 500 futures are up 27 points this morning. So we\u2019re off to the races again.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z2kr6YI\"} -->\n<p>I won\u2019t talk anything about the situation with Maduro other than to say that the market seems to like it.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"pSfWE\"} -->\n<p>Energy stocks, which were very poor performers in 2025, are starting off 2026 as the number one sector to be in. And I think what we\u2019re in for\u2026 I wouldn\u2019t chase the energy stocks higher in today\u2019s move. You know, most of them are going to gap up 8%, 9%, 10%, so I wouldn\u2019t chase them on this. But I would use any opportunity, if you get a pullback over the next several sessions back to where they were, perhaps, on Friday, as an opportunity to position if you do not have positions in that sector.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z1f3cYI\"} -->\n<p>As I\u2019ve mentioned many times over the past several weeks, the energy sector is probably the cheapest and most value-oriented sector in the market. And I like the way the stocks look. I would have appreciated it if we had delayed taking over Venezuela until this week, when I had an opportunity to make a few recommendations early on, but I won\u2019t let that burden anybody here.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"dwBeM\"} -->\n<p>So let\u2019s get right into it. Let me share the screen with you and show you what I\u2019m looking at.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Zrq1pF\"} -->\n<p>This first chart is the S&amp;P 500. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917522,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"13pQ6o\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"570\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917522\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-1.png 624w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-1-300x274.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-1-431x394.png 431w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-1-525x480.png 525w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z1IG9gV\"} -->\n<p>I had mentioned before the two-week break we just took that this setup looks really eerily familiar to how we set up in early 2025. You see the red arrows match, the blue arrows match, and the question becomes: where is this green arrow going to appear on the right side of the chart?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z2kF308\"} -->\n<p>Basically, if we\u2019re playing out the same roadmap, it\u2019s possible that the high we made a week and a half ago is the high at 6,929. It\u2019s also possible that maybe there\u2019s enough fuel in the tank to get us up one more time to another new high before the market finally gives us a peak and a rollover into an intermediate-term downtrend.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z88JFk\"} -->\n<p>I do think we\u2019re headed toward an intermediate-term downtrend sometime in the next couple of weeks. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me at all if it were to start next week, once we get the enthusiasm over the Venezuela situation out of the way. But as we are right now, we entered today slightly oversold, so there\u2019s some fuel in the tank to push things higher.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z12RK0d\"} -->\n<p>We\u2019re in the last day of the seasonally bullish period. The cautionary part I have to say is that the VIX is on a broad stock market sell signal, and the VIX is actually trading higher this morning. The VIX is up about 5%.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1HrPYM\"} -->\n<p>Before I talk about the VIX, let me talk about this. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917525,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"1vBLGz\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"312\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917525\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-2.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-2-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"L4Gjg\"} -->\n<p>The jobs number is coming out on Friday. The past several jobs numbers have been relatively poor, and you\u2019ve seen the unemployment rate spike up to 4.6%. As an absolute level, 4.6% is still considered full employment, so it\u2019s nothing to worry about by itself. But these red arrows on the chart I\u2019m showing correspond to the yield curve.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1mhp8E\"} -->\n<p>When the yield curve has gone from an inverted state to an upward slope, that\u2019s where the unemployment rate has been at those times. And you can see all of them preceded a rather large spike in unemployment over the next several months. This is a monthly chart, so it takes a while to play out.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1LyOua\"} -->\n<p>If I were looking at this as a stock chart, the unemployment rate looks really bullish. It\u2019s an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, and it\u2019s accelerating higher. Friday\u2019s number is going to be very important. If we see another uptick, I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s the topping point for the market, but it\u2019s something to keep in mind.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"2cswqB\"} -->\n<p>In my adult lifetime, we\u2019ve only had four other times where we had a yield curve inversion turn back into an upward slope. All four times preceded relatively difficult economic times and relatively difficult stock markets. As much as I\u2019ve harped on this chart for the past year or year and a half, I\u2019m going to keep harping on it because I do think it\u2019s significant for what we\u2019re going to face in 2026.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"KEItT\"} -->\n<p>I won\u2019t spend a lot of time on that today because we\u2019re going to focus on short-term stuff, but it\u2019s something to keep in the back of your mind, especially as we get into Friday.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1pLtXM\"} -->\n<p>All right, let\u2019s look at the VIX real quick. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917528,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"2h428r\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"748\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917528\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-3.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-3-281x300.png 281w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-3-369x394.png 369w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-3-449x480.png 449w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"ZslDvo\"} -->\n<p>The VIX was trading below its lower Bollinger Band last week, and it came back inside the band. That gives us a VIX sell signal on the broad stock market.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z1ew38u\"} -->\n<p>VIX sell signals are fairly rare. Maybe we get one or two a year, as opposed to buy signals, where we\u2019ll often get five or six a year. VIX buy signals tend to play out immediately. VIX sell signals tend to be a little bit delayed. The last one we had was in late July, right before the S&amp;P 500 fell about 300 points.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"ZmhU92\"} -->\n<p>We got one last week. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if the S&amp;P 500 is on the verge of making an intermediate-term top and this signal eventually proves to be confirmation of that. Pay attention to the VIX. It\u2019s higher this morning while the market is trading higher, which is always a warning sign.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z1YEWHV\"} -->\n<p>My bottom line is that I think there\u2019s probably a day or two of strength in the market, fueled largely by the energy sector. But I think ultimately, over the next several sessions, we\u2019re going to put a top in place and enter maybe a two- or three-week pullback. Be on the lookout for something like that.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1PRuyK\"} -->\n<p>That said, as I\u2019ve mentioned multiple times over the past several weeks, we\u2019ve got a bifurcated market. We\u2019ve got a lot of stocks that have been selling off and a lot of stocks that have been rallying. Those that have been selling off have been making consistently lower lows but putting positive divergence in place, which is bullish. Those that have been rallying have been making higher highs but with negative divergence, which is ultimately bearish.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"1RGV1k\"} -->\n<p>You should see those things flip-flop. A lot of the underperforming stocks might actually start performing pretty well. I just want to share a couple of them with you \u2013 not that I\u2019m trading any of them here. Do your own homework and see if there\u2019s something you like.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Zb7lG1\"} -->\n<p>This is Super Micro Computer, SMCI.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917531,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"12PaUn\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"639\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917531\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-4.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-4-300x274.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-4-432x394.png 432w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-4-526x480.png 526w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"2ckaXG\"} -->\n<p> It used to be a darling of Wall Street and has been a bit of a bummer over the past few months. You can see how it sold off, made a series of lower lows and lower highs, but with positive divergence. The most recent lower low was right before New Year\u2019s, and we\u2019ve got a nice little spike higher that should prove to be a higher high.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z2oBAiU\"} -->\n<p>If it can come back down and make a higher low with this positive divergence in place, that would provide a pretty good opportunity. It closed Friday at 30.96, so I\u2019d look for something close to the $30 level as an opportunity to put money to work if we get that chance.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Zizw95\"} -->\n<p>Here\u2019s another one, Grocery Outlet. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917534,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"1FApgE\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"639\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917534\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-5.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-5-300x274.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-5-432x394.png 432w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-5-526x480.png 526w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z21Eecn\"} -->\n<p>I don\u2019t know much about the stock other than it\u2019s a discount grocery chain, but the pattern looks pretty positive. You\u2019ve got lower lows, lower highs, another lower low, but with positive divergence. I think last week\u2019s low is going to prove to be a higher low, and the stock probably works higher, maybe back up to the 50-day moving average.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z21HKr0\"} -->\n<p>Another one \u2013 this will be my 2026 weight-loss trade \u2013 is Peloton.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":917537,\"width\":\"900px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"tempID\":\"1m8DDn\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"639\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917537\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-6.png 700w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-6-300x274.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-6-432x394.png 432w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jdd-1.5.26-6-526x480.png 526w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z2iImLM\"} -->\n<p>I had no interest in owning this stock for a long time because I thought it traded at a relatively high multiple for what is essentially exercise equipment. But look at this: you\u2019ve got a tight wedge forming with positive divergence and the potential for a higher low.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"tempID\":\"Z2lxxbr\"} -->\n<p>On a nice spike higher, this could be a $7 or $7.50 stock, which would be a nice percentage return from the $6 level. I haven\u2019t even looked at the options because it\u2019s a $6 stock and doesn\u2019t really require them. Those are some of the things I\u2019m looking at from the long side.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For today\u2019s Market Minute, I decided to unlock part of my first weekly live call of 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-26039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26039"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26051,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26039\/revisions\/26051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26039"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=26039"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=26039"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=26039"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=26039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}