{"id":26129,"date":"2026-01-20T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26129"},"modified":"2026-01-13T11:20:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T16:20:14","slug":"cracking-the-code-of-the-markets-seasonal-cycles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/cracking-the-code-of-the-markets-seasonal-cycles\/","title":{"rendered":"Cracking the Code of the Market\u2019s Seasonal Cycles"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Human progress didn\u2019t start with better tools. It started with better timing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Early humans paid close attention to repeating patterns in nature \u2013 the length of days, the return of floods, the timing of animal migrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those observations gave rise to the first calendars \u2013 sometimes recorded in stone, and often anchored to the predictable cycles of the sun, moon, and stars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This helped early farmers decide when to plant and harvest crops, and helped hunters know when herds would pass through a region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These cycles didn\u2019t explain <em>why<\/em> things happened. They explained <em>when<\/em> happened. And that knowledge was enough to plan around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And when it comes to humanity\u2019s long fascination with cycles, few monuments are as widely studied as Stonehenge in southern England.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-1024x821.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-1024x821.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-300x240.jpg 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-768x615.jpg 768w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-492x394.jpg 492w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-599x480.jpg 599w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu.jpg 1102w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Stonehenge, a prehistoric monument near Salisbury in southern England<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Built about 4,500 years ago in several phases, Stonehenge is among the best-known prehistoric monuments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One enduring theory about Stonehenge rests on its alignment. Its main axis points toward the sunrise on the summer solstice. That\u2019s led archaeologists to argue that Stonehenge was designed, at least in part, to mark key points in the solar year \u2013 signals that would have helped early societies anticipate seasonal change in a world where timing meant survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Building a monument like this likely required generations of careful observation, tracking the sun\u2019s annual path using little more than fixed landmarks and sightlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, we don\u2019t need to build huge stone structures to detect patterns that can help us thrive. We have more detailed data at our disposal and a lot more analytical power to help us put it all together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At TradeSmith, our mission is to give everyday investors access to the kinds of data and analytics once reserved for hedge funds. That work has led us to uncover a feature of the market that\u2019s often overlooked: seasonality in stock movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can\u2019t see these cycles with the naked eye. They only show up after you run decades of data through powerful algorithms to look for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But once you do, a surprising picture emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thousands of stocks have historically reliable windows \u2013 specific times of year when they tend to rise and others when they tend to fall. That includes bull and bear markets, manias and panics, wars, pandemics, and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I\u2019m proud to say that, at TradeSmith, we\u2019ve developed cutting-edge software to track those patterns. We\u2019ve also created a rapid-fire trading strategy based on these signals that can pinpoint bullish seasonality windows on 5,000 stocks \u2013 to the day. In our backtests, the system\u2019s trades have won with 83% accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Seasonality Affects Markets, Too<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodity traders, for example, have long tracked planting and harvest cycles in crops like corn and wheat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy traders watch seasonal demand shifts tied to winter heating and summer cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The gold market has recurring seasonal tendencies, often strengthening during certain parts of the year tied to jewelry demand, central bank buying, and annual festivals in India and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And stock investors have studied phenomena like the January Effect for decades. Even Wall Street\u2019s old saying \u2013 \u201cSell in May and go away\u201d \u2013 comes from observed seasonal behavior, not theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But we\u2019ve discovered that seasonality doesn\u2019t just apply just to commodities and the big stock market index. Every stock has its own seasons to rise or fall \u2013 a kind of summer and a kind of winter, too \u2013 year after year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Big-box retailer Target (TGT) provides a good example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As one of America\u2019s largest retailers, this stock moves with the rhythms of consumer spending throughout the year. But for all the money won \u2013 and lost \u2013 on Target over the last few years, there\u2019s one certainty&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between June 22 and July 21, you want to buy the retail bellwether. Target has moved up an average of 5.2% during that summer period, rising 100% of the time over the past 15 years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"593\" height=\"196\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917681\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-2.png 593w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-2-300x99.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s 15 years of summertime price spikes, starting long before it fell under the pandemic-era spotlight. And in 2025, the pattern held true: Target rose 10.3% during its 29-day seasonally bullish window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart you\u2019re seeing above is from one of the breakthrough innovations from TradeSmith\u2019s team of researchers, software engineers, and quant investors: our ground-breaking <em>Trade Cycles<\/em> Seasonality tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s an easy-to-use tool that can take one of thousands of commonly traded stocks, analyze its movements, and point out its strongest seasonality trends \u2013 with starting periods narrowed <em>down to the day<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s another example of a strong seasonality pattern, this time in <strong>Home Depot (HD)<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"293\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917684\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-3.png 624w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-3-300x141.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the last 15 years, between June 15 to July 27, Home Depot\u2019s share price has risen 93% of the time, with an average return of 4.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in 2025, the pattern held true again. It rose from $349.31 on June 16 to $372.69 on July 28 \u2013 a 6.7% gain in a just over a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Powerful New System for Seasonal Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Target and Home Depot are just two examples among many others.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our development team has fine-tuned this tool to uncover seasonality cycles in stocks, stock market indexes like the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as in currencies and commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By crunching the data and compiling the historical movements of thousands of different assets and running 50,000 tests a day to analyze every stock in the major indexes, we\u2019ve built a new system to help predict the biggest jumps on 5,000 stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over our 18-year backtest, these seasonal trades delivered 857% in total growth. That\u2019s more than <em>twice<\/em> what the S&amp;P 500 delivered over the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even in 2007, the worst year in our testing, we saw an average gain of 2.5% and an annualized return of 37.9%. That\u2019s close to four times the average annual gain of the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"351\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917687\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-4.png 624w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1.20.26-jmu-4-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The question now: How can we make this powerful system work for you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Power of Seasonality Is Now in Your Hands<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In just a few hours,<strong> at 10 a.m. Eastern today during our <em><a href=\"https:\/\/signup.tradesmith.com\/?cid=MKT856999&amp;eid=MKT858553&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC240258\">Prediction 2026 webinar<\/a><\/em><\/strong>, I\u2019ll show you how our Seasonality tool can help you find the best time to buy <em>and<\/em> sell a stock \u2013 down to the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And as we start the new year, a new batch of these seasonal cycles is about to kick off\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And we\u2019ll be sharing unfiltered access to the Seasonality tool and the top seasonal recommendations this year as part of our <em>Trade Cycles <\/em>trading advisory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/signup.tradesmith.com\/?cid=MKT856999&amp;eid=MKT858553&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC240258\">Go here now to register for the event with one click.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I hope to see you there!<\/p>\n\n\n<p>Keith Kaplan<\/p>\n<p>CEO,&nbsp;TradeSmith<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TradeSmith&#8217;s ground-breaking innovation uncovers hidden seasonality patterns in thousands of stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[118],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-26129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-keith-kaplan"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26129"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26135,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26129\/revisions\/26135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26129"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=26129"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=26129"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=26129"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=26129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}