{"id":26159,"date":"2026-01-21T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26159"},"modified":"2026-01-20T10:55:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:55:01","slug":"the-bond-market-should-worry-stock-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-bond-market-should-worry-stock-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bond Market Should Worry Stock Investors\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The bond market is angry. And, that should worry stock investors.<\/p>\n

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to its highest level in nearly five months yesterday. Here’s the updated chart…<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

Regular readers will recall we pointed out in December<\/a> that this chart was showing an “inverted Head & Shoulders” pattern. We suggested if the yield broke above the neckline of the pattern at 47.5 (4.75%) then it was likely headed to 49.5 (4.95%).<\/p>\n

That is indeed what appears to be playing out so far.<\/p>\n

A casual observer might look at this chart and say, “Big deal. All that has happened is long-term interest rates are back to where they were for much of last year. The stock market wasn’t so concerned about a 4.95% 30-year yield back then. There’s no reason to be too concerned about it now.”<\/p>\n

But, let’s not forget, the last time this yield was at 4.95% the S&P 500 was at 6400.<\/p>\n

The index closed at 6940 last Friday.<\/p>\n

It’s also worth pointing out the recent rise in long-term interest rates is happening while the FOMC has been lowering its target on short-term interest rates. It’s happening while the Fed is engaging in “Quantitative Easing-lite” by buying $40-60 billion in Treasury securities each month. And, it’s happening while President Trump is asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-related debt.<\/p>\n

All of those activities are designed to bring down long-term interest rates. And yet, the rates are pressing higher anyway.<\/p>\n

Like I wrote earlier… the bond market is angry.<\/p>\n

Rising long-term interest rates are a headwind for the stock market. While the stock market has been able to press higher, or at least mark time for the past few weeks, there is a point at which rising yields will pressure stocks.<\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark
\nEditor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n\n

\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just go here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rising long-term interest rates are a headwind for the stock market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-26159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26159"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26165,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26159\/revisions\/26165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26159"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=26159"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=26159"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=26159"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=26159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}